Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei speaks during the keynote location at Salesforce's Dreamforce gathering at the Moscone Center on Sept. 15, 2026 in San Francisco, California.
Benjamin Fanjoy | Getty Images
As Anthropic barrels toward a possible $2 trillion market cap on the Nasdaq, one investigation resolute is valuing the synthetic intellect business at a uncomplicated $150 milliard and says Wall Street is concerning to visage an "unprecedented test of capitalist gullibility."
In a study on Tuesday, autonomous financial investigation provider New Constructs called Anthropic's upcoming offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026."
To attain its desired valuation, the resolute estimates Anthropic would need to document twice the trailing twelvemonth of gain for Nvidia, the world's most precious tech company. Nvidia's net earnings complete the former four quarters topped $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's income in 2025 was $4.6 milliard as the business racked up a net defeat of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the company's prospectus.
Anthropic's mounting functioning losses coupled alongside emerging competition from a plethora of open-source models led New Constructs to decide that, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business."
"Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been apparent that the closed models would battle to create profits," the resolute wrote.
David Trainer, originator and CEO of New Constructs, has built a position on Wall Street as a notorious withstand on IPOs. He's been correct in the past.
New Constructs called WeWork "the most ridiculous IPO of 2019," onward of the office-sharing company's planned offering. WeWork had been appreciated privately at $47 billion, but fair six weeks following the New Constructs report, the business pulled its IPO amid feeble petition and serious criticism surrounding its financials. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
"While Anthropic offers additional to community than WeWork always did, at a $2 trillion valuation, its IPO presents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of U.S. chief markets," New Constructs wrote, adding that the IPO's intent isn't to provision prosperity for community markets investors, but fairly liquidity for the company's Wall Street backers.
Anthropic didn't react to a petition for comment.
New Constructs was additionally bearish on Allbirds' IPO in 2021. The footwear business debuted on the Nasdaq and reached a evaluation of $4.1 milliard on its beginning day. Earlier this year, the business sold its resources to American Exchange Group for an estimated $39 million, pivoting to AI in the process.
Trainer's resolute has additionally missed the grade on calls. Its "most ridiculous" 2020 IPO choice was DoorDash, which the resolute additionally compared to WeWork, calling the food shipment business "similarly disadvantaged."
However, DoorDash has held up on the community market. The inventory shot up on its archetypal day in December 2020, giving the business a market cap of complete $60 billion. That figure has since swelled to $83 billion.
In an interview alongside CNBC in 2021, Trainer acknowledged that "crazy material happens" and New Constructs doesn't continually get it right.
"I can't let that annoy me," he stated at the time. "I have to remain true to what I think is right."
Anthropic motionless hasn't made its prospectus public, so New Constructs hasn't seen the genuine filing. However, the resolute cited figures that have been reported, including from the New York Times, which reported in September that the business was on gait to create $100 milliard in annualized income by the end of 2026.
Anthropic claimed at the end of July that its annualized income run charge was up sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion.
The New Constructs study additionally notes that Anthropic's assertion that AI could stance "a catastrophic or existential hazard to humanity" is another logic why investors should evade the IPO.
"While we were not fortunate adequate to be among the few to whom Anthropic's S-1 was selectively disclosed, the reports of the leaked financials disclose additional than adequate to measure the gargantuan risks of investing in this IPO," New Constructs wrote.
