Tesla Hasn't Had a Successful New Product Launch Since JB Straubel Stepped Down

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As has been extensively reported, Tesla is concerning to end Cybertruck production. The Cybertruck has been a shocking failure. I’m certain there are additional detailed analyses out there somewhere, but this abbreviated reply on X from Ben McCombe that Tina Casey included in her part on the matter sums it up extremely well:

“Installed tooling to build 125k Cybertrucks a year.

“Sold 70k complete 3 years.

“Spent $2bn on investigation and development.

“Made fair $100m in income profits from sales.

“Net project defeat of $1.9b”

That’s beautiful wild. A net project defeat of about $2 billion. Now, I have to acknowledge that I haven’t fact checked the numbers here, but what we cognize for certain is that Tesla planned to create a lot of Cybertrucks per twelvemonth and ended up producing a small fraction of that target. In fact, the annual revenue mark for the Cybertruck was higher than 125,000 — it was 250,000, alongside a goal of getting up to 500,000!

The Cybertruck was hyped up as having additional reservations than any conveyance in former and was supposedly going to shatter records and change the market. I warned group on many occasions that the booking total was not a genuine booking total and was certainly not a dependable indicator of petition since a) a booking lone required a $100 refundable deposit, and b) a ton of group made reservations following Elon Musk stated that you could fastener in the cost of life Full Self Driving whenever making a booking (so, you’d lone have to pay $6,000 for FSD no matter how much the disbursal of it went up in the following years). Anyway, the Cybertruck had another issues as fine whenever it eventually arrived. It disbursal concerning twice as much as it was expected to disbursal and it had concerning fractional as much range as it was expected to have. In another words, it was not equal near to the conveyance it was expected to be — its range per dollar disbursal was concerning ¼ what it was expected to be.

The Cybertruck was expected to be the next big item following the Tesla Model Y. It was expected to disrupt the gigantic US pickup truck market. The Model S was a brilliant and extensively acclaimed car, if a bit additional costly than the bulk market could afford. The Model S did in fact vie superbly fine alongside the leaders in its segment, the BMW 7 Series and Mercedes S-Class. The Tesla Model X brought a akin offering in a larger bundle alongside several fun additional elements (falcon-wing doors, self-presenting doors, a third row). The Tesla Model 3 afterward entirely shook the automotive earth as a enormous market event and perchance the biggest merchandise initiate in former (in conditions of total revenue). The Tesla Model Y was basically the Model 3 in a additional famous crossover bundle and eventually became a much higher marketing vehicle. In fact, it became the highest marketing conveyance example of any benevolent in multiple years. Then JB Straubel stepped downward as CTO.

Due to their EV passions, JB Straubel and Elon Musk were introduced to all another and had lunch together to conversation concerning electric airplanes (Elon’s dream) and afterward electric cars (because JB talked additional awareness into Elon). Then the two of them were introduced to Marc Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard, who had founded Tesla Motors and fair barely got started on the idea. After a while, Tarpenning and Eberhard remaining the company, and Musk and Straubel really led its betterment and growth into an automotive superpower (as briefly described above). Since JB Straubel stepped downward from his function as CTO of Tesla, however, if one thinks concerning it, it’s difficult to acknowledge any prosperous merchandise initiate from the business or much important betterment at all.

Straubel remaining his CTO stance in July 2019. The Model Y was unveiled in March 2019 and was concerning ⅔ the identical as the Model 3. It would appear that getting the Model Y designed and prepared for initiate was the final big project Straubel worked on. (Note that the Semi was unveiled in November 2017 but was lengthy delayed because of power division supply, according to Elon Musk.) Since the Model Y, what important merchandise initiate have we seen from Tesla? There was the Cybertruck, as we’ve already discussed. That was unveiled in November 2019. When you think concerning the timing now, did Straubel differ powerfully alongside Musk on the Cybertruck and decide it was period to move on whenever Musk pushed onward alongside his idea for an electric truck? It took another 4+ years for Tesla to commencement delivering the Cybertruck, in difference to Model Y deliveries starting in January 2020, small than a twelvemonth following the example was unveiled. More recently, the Cybercab has been developed, unveiled, and is now in production. A person car smaller and cheaper than the Model 3 was never developed and unveiled — fair a stripped down, decontented Model 3 — and there basically haven’t been any another merchandise unveilings since Straubel remaining his function as CTO. Elon Musk has published a brace of slightly scattered, rambling “master plans,” but we haven’t gotten any important new products apart from the Cybertruck and the fair arriving Cybercab.

Even looking complete on the energy retention flank of things, the Tesla Megapack was launched in July 2019, the duration Straubel stepped downward from his function as CTO. Did Straubel fair decide he had done adequate formerly he had completed the Megapack initiate and gotten the Model Y basically prepared for market? Did he have conflicts alongside Musk on anywhere to obtain the business from there?

Yes, there’s been incremental merchandise betterment and refreshed versions of Tesla cars and energy retention systems. There are motionless plentifulness of engineers operating on improving things. However, there doesn’t appear to be the identical guidance in new merchandise development, and there additionally isn’t the identical practical, moderating component that Straubel apparently provided to Musk’s additional wild, grandiose, sci-fi inspired dreams and ideas.

Perhaps this is all misunderstanding the roles of the two men to several extent. Perhaps things would not be much distinct if Straubel had stayed in the CTO function and had the identical power he had before leaving. He is motionless on the commission of directors. (What that really method is unclear, though.) Perhaps Tesla’s achievement and endeavor would motionless be chiefly according to the Model 3 and Model Y, without new transformative products. Or perchance we would have had a additional normal pickup truck from Tesla, an electric van, improved batteries, a improved market rollout of the Semi, and another products. Perhaps the Cybertruck, an epic merchandise failure, never would have been shown to the merchandise and hyped up unrealistically alongside specs and figures detached from what was going to be possible. Perhaps we’d have a Model C (affordable, compact Tesla) fairly than a Cybercab. Perhaps Tesla would be a extremely distinct company.

Who knows? We don’t cognize the ins and outs of JB Straubel and Elon Musk’s relationship, or how much Straubel really led Tesla in his CTO role. We don’t cognize how much Straubel tampered downward Musk’s worst instincts or guided merchandise development. We motionless really don’t equal cognize why Straubel left. According to Tesla, it was so that he could concentration additional period on Redwood Materials, but why wasn’t that endeavor inside the umbrella of Tesla in the archetypal place? Vertical integration has lengthy been a key component of the company. Who knows? There’s a lot we don’t cognize and never will. However, what we do cognize is that since JB Straubel stepped downward from his function as CTO of Tesla, we haven’t seen a significant, prosperous new merchandise initiate at the company. We’ll have to delay a bit longer to see if the Cybercab is one, and whether that sets a new, affirmative way for the forthcoming of the business or not.

Featured photo from International Transport Forum (CC BY NC-ND 2.0 license)