Anthropic Overtakes SpaceX In Betting Odds For 2026’s Biggest IPO

Aug 27, 2026 03:52 AM - 1 hour ago 4

Topline

Anthropic overtook SpaceX successful Polymarket likelihood for the largest first nationalist offering of 2026, pinch traders favoring the AI startup contempt a record-shattering IPO from SpaceX earlier this year.

Anthropic whitethorn spell nationalist arsenic soon arsenic October.

Photo Illustration by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Facts

A proposition titled, “Largest IPO by marketplace headdress successful 2026?” has Anthropic astatine 58% likelihood of having the largest nationalist offering this year, while SpaceX holds 44% odds.

SpaceX’s likelihood connected the proposition were arsenic precocious arsenic 90% conscionable 2 weeks ago, though expanding accusation astir Anthropic and its looming IPO, which could hap arsenic soon arsenic October, has fixed traders little assurance it will clasp its title of having the year’s largest debut.

Anthropic plans to show investors it sees complete $30 trillion successful imaginable revenue, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, exceeding the $28.5 trillion estimate fixed by SpaceX for its ain full addressable market.

Anthropic is targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation pinch its IPO and could raise up to $100 billion successful funding.

SpaceX went nationalist pinch a $1.7 trillion valuation and raised $85.7 cardinal successful June.

Big Number

$5.6 million. That is really overmuch money traders person sunk into the proposition, pinch much than $835,000 wagered connected Anthropic and much than $820,000 stake connected SpaceX.

Tangent

OpenAI plans to spell public by astatine slightest adjacent year, pinch early reports suggesting an complete $1 trillion valuation upon its IPO.

Key Background

SpaceX’s banal debuted astatine $150 per stock pursuing its IPO. While Anthropic has not group an IPO price, SpaceX shares person slid to astir the $139 people aft debuting successful June, recovering from a slump earlier this period that sent shares arsenic debased arsenic $106. While the 2 companies are competitors successful the AI sector, they support a adjacent narration done a computing infrastructure partnership that allows Anthropic to powerfulness immoderate of its workloads pinch hardware from xAI, a subsidiary of SpaceX. Elon Musk has besides reversed his antagonistic stance against Anthropic, calling the institution “the leader successful AI” successful a July post and lauding Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, a groundbreaking exemplary pinch cybersecurity features truthful vast, the institution has held backmost connected a full-scale nationalist merchandise complete concerns it could beryllium utilized to onslaught awesome web browsers and operating systems.