Amazon projects it's on track to deliver nearly 90% of its own US packages

Amazon's ain transportation network is handling a quickly increasing stock of its US packages, pinch a caller soul forecast projecting that fig could attack 9 retired of each 10 packages by 2029.

Amazon's latest preliminary forecast puts its ain delivery network astatine 86.3% of its US packages successful 2027, 87.4% successful 2028, and 88.7% successful 2029, according to an soul readying archive from precocious July that Business Insider reviewed.

The displacement is happening faster than Amazon antecedently projected. Its anterior estimates put first-party transportation astatine 83.8% of US packages successful 2027 and 85% successful 2028, according to the document.

In 2023, the institution said it delivered complete two-thirds of its ain packages successful the US, the past clip it publically disclosed that figure.

Amazon's latest scheme projects that its ain transportation web would grip astir 12.2 cardinal US packages successful 2027, increasing to 15.8 cardinal successful 2029.

The antecedently unreported figures quantify really profoundly Amazon's narration pinch the accepted parcel manufacture has changed. Over the past decade, Amazon has transformed itself from 1 of the biggest customers of carriers for illustration UPS and the US Postal Service into a transportation elephantine successful its ain right.

Some extracurricular carriers person besides pulled backmost aliases changed the capacity they provide. At the aforesaid time, greater power complete transportation has go progressively important to Amazon's unit business. CEO Andy Jassy has said faster transportation leads customers to see Amazon for much of their purchases.

An Amazon spokesperson told Business Insider that the projections shouldn't beryllium interpreted arsenic finalized plans.

"We're ever readying and forecasting crossed our operations, and we regularly nutrient galore versions and updates of readying documents," the spokesperson said. "Any soul projections are preliminary, taxable to important revision, and should not beryllium treated arsenic definitive aliases arsenic representing finalized plans."

Amazon absorbs the growth

Amazon's forecast puts almost each of its projected package maturation done its ain network.

Under the plan, full US package measurement grows from astir 14.1 cardinal successful 2027 to 17.8 cardinal successful 2029, an summation of astir 3.7 cardinal packages. Over the aforesaid period, measurement allocated to extracurricular carriers hardly changes, hovering astir 2 cardinal packages.

Amazon's first-party web doesn't mean Amazon's labor make each those deliveries. Much of its last-mile web relies connected independent Delivery Service Partners that usage Amazon-branded vans, arsenic good arsenic Amazon Flex contractors who present packages successful their ain vehicles.

Amazon's projections expect immoderate of the fastest maturation to travel from its Sub Same-Day network, which stores products person to customers for transportation wrong hours. Its stock of Amazon's first-party package measurement is projected to turn from 17.1% successful 2027 to 21.3% successful 2029.

The projections bespeak that Amazon's agrarian web will relationship for conscionable complete 11% of first-party package volume. The institution has committed much than $4 cardinal to triple the size of that web by the extremity of 2026.

Amazon is besides trying to make its transportation infrastructure faster and much productive.

Business Insider antecedently reported that Amazon is testing all-day delivery pinch faster shipping windows and exploring Walmart-sized stores nether Project Kobe that could service arsenic pickup points and section transportation hubs. It's besides processing Project Tetromino, a highly automated transportation position that could process packages much quickly.

Amazon projects a shrinking domiciled for accepted carriers

As Amazon's ain transportation web grows, it expects accepted carriers to grip a smaller stock of its packages.

USPS's stock is declining successful Amazon's forecast. The company's anterior scheme allocated astir 13% of US packages to the Postal Service successful 2027, compared pinch astir 10% successful the newer forecast. The latest scheme has that stock falling to 8% by 2029.

The diminution comes aft a tense information of negotiations pinch USPS complete a caller transportation contract. The companies reached an statement earlier this year.

The caller USPS contract, signed successful April, establishes a minimum of 1.27 cardinal packages, 19% beneath the erstwhile contract's minimum, according to the latest archive connected Amazon's projections. The preliminary scheme allocates astir 1.4 cardinal packages annually to USPS, though the last magnitude will dangle partially connected the capacity and sum of Amazon's ain network.

UPS, meanwhile, decided to trim the measurement it handles for Amazon by much than half by the 2nd half of 2026, citing little profitability. Amazon's preliminary forecast has UPS handling 1.8% of its US packages successful 2027 and falling to 1.4% by 2029, aliases astir 250 cardinal packages a year.

FedEx plays a smaller role, accounting for astir 0.4% of Amazon's US package volume. Amazon revived its relationship pinch FedEx past year after the companies trim ties successful 2019.

Amazon isn't cutting accepted carriers retired entirely. The soul archive says the USPS statement expires successful 2029 and assumes it will beryllium renewed "given the communal dependency betwixt Amazon and USPS."

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