Retail's Top 10 Lists Have Been Wrong For A Century

Aug 29, 2026 07:11 AM - 2 hours ago 3

On October 15, 2018, Sears Holdings Corporation revenge for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Sears had been the largest retailer successful the United States for 26 years, from 1964 done 1989.

A fewer weeks later, Jeff Bezos held an all-hands gathering astatine Amazon's Seattle headquarters. An worker asked him what he made of the unit landscape, and specifically what he took from the Sears bankruptcy. Bezos did not reassure anyone.

"Amazon is not excessively large to fail. In fact, I foretell 1 time Amazon will fail. Amazon will spell bankrupt. If you look astatine ample companies, their lifespans thin to beryllium 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years."

Then the portion that matters more:

"If we commencement to attraction connected ourselves, alternatively of focusing connected our customers, that will beryllium the opening of the end. We person to effort and hold that time for arsenic agelong arsenic possible."

Doug McMillon, who retired arsenic Walmart’s main executive connected January 31 of this twelvemonth aft astir 12 years, kept a type of the aforesaid thought connected his phone: an image of the 10 largest US retailers successful each decade. Companies astatine the apical of that database do not enactment there, and the position has to beryllium earned again each year. Walmart became the largest retailer successful America successful 1990 and has held the title for 36 consecutive years -- McMillon’s full tenure moving Sam's Club, past Walmart International, past the company.

I respect the pragmatic paranoia successful some men. But the unit historiographer successful maine has ne'er been capable to fto spell of the truth that the floor plan is wrong, and that the ligament communicative announcing Walmart's emergence successful 1991 was incorrect successful precisely the aforesaid way.

Why Was The Chart Wrong?

The 1950, 1960 and 1970 columns connected Doug’s database see Fortune Brands, Brown Shoe, Hartmarx, Magnavox and S&W Fine Foods -- companies that manufactured equipment alternatively than sold them.

That is not carelessness. It is an artifact of the source. Whoever built the floor plan worked from the Fortune 500, and retailers were not eligible for the Fortune 500 until 1994. The database could not incorporate the answer, truthful it returned the closest point it had.

The costs shows up successful what is missing. A&P appears successful nary file astatine each -- and A&P was the largest retailer successful the United States for astatine slightest 35 years, and the first retailer anyplace to walk $1 cardinal successful sales, which it did successful 1929, astatine 2.4 times the size of Sears.

Why Did UPI Get It Wrong Too?

When the handover yet happened, UPI collapsed it connected March 8, 1991, pinch a lede worthy the value of admission:

"It was astir arsenic conceivable arsenic the Brooklyn Dodgers moving to Los Angeles. But the Dodgers did move, and now Sears is nary longer the nation's largest retailer."

Then, successful the adjacent breath, the error: Sears' 1990 results "knocks it disconnected the apical spot for the first clip since 1900 erstwhile its catalog income overtook those of Montgomery Ward."

Correct astir Montgomery Ward. Wrong astir the title. Sears did walk Montgomery Ward astir the move of the period and did go America's largest wide merchandiser. It did not go America's largest retailer until the fiscal twelvemonth that ended successful January 1965, because for the six decades successful between, a grocer was bigger. Sears' reign was 26 years, not 90.

The correction underneath some is the aforesaid 1 the manufacture still makes. Each looked only astatine the companies that resembled its subject. Fortune's database saw manufacturers. UPI saw the rival section store. Neither looked astatine food, which was past and remains now the largest point Americans buy.

Who Was Actually No. 1?

Three companies, and only three, person led American unit successful the past century.

A&P held it for astatine slightest 35 years -- done 1963, and the opening of its reign is earlier than immoderate sourceable database reaches. Sears held it for 26 years, from 1964 done 1989. Walmart has held it for 36 years, from 1990 done today.

Which produces a truth that ought to beryllium uncomfortable successful Bentonville: Walmart has already been No. 1 for a decade longer than Sears ever was.

The handover itself is the champion statement Bezos and McMillon have. In 1989 Sears led Walmart by $5.8 billion, a 22% gap. One twelvemonth later, Walmart's income grew 26% while Sears' grew 1.2%, and Walmart, Kmart and Sears vanished wrong $616 cardinal of each different connected a $32 cardinal guidelines -- little than 2%. Walmart went from 3rd to first successful a azygous year, and Sears went from first to 3rd successful that aforesaid year, according to the 3 companies' yearly reports.

Sears past took different 28 years to die.

So I rebuilt the chart, from the companies' ain yearly reports alternatively than from a database that excluded them.

List of apical 10 retailers successful the US each decade

Jason Goldberg

One acknowledgement it produces: Kroger is the only retailer to look successful the apical 10 successful each decade since 1929. It classed 4th successful 1929. It ranks 4th today.

So Who Is The Largest US Retailer Right Now?

Many readers will beryllium amazed to spot Walmart still up of Amazon. The honorable reply is that successful 2026, cipher knows which of them sells much equipment to American consumers. Or much precisely, immoderate group astir apt do know, and they are not saying.

Neither institution reports the worth of the equipment it sells -- what the manufacture calls gross merchandise value, aliases GMV. They study revenue, and gross is simply a different thing, because some run marketplaces alongside their ain unit business. When Amazon makes a first-party sale, the gross is the afloat worth of the goods. When it makes a third-party sale, the gross is only the commission, aliases return rate, that Amazon earns.

That favoritism is not a rounding error. Third-party sellers accounted for 61% to 62% of Amazon's paid units successful each 4th of 2025, according to the company's quarterly net releases -- and because third-party items transportation a higher mean trading value than Amazon's own, the third-party stock of GMV is higher still, location astir 63% of Amazon's US sales.

Why Can't Anyone Size Amazon?

Because the 1 number you would request is the 1 cipher publishes.

Credible estimates of Amazon's 2025 US GMV tally from $447.9 cardinal to $630.6 billion. The full dispersed comes down to what you presume Amazon's blended return complaint is, mostly location betwixt 25% and 35%. Every 5 points of assumed return complaint moves Amazon's worldwide GMV by astir $100 billion.

Summary of estimates fo Amazon and Walmart 2025 US RetaiklGMV

Jason Goldberg

The consequence is that the ranking is not a fact, it is simply a usability of an assumption:

On the debased estimate, Walmart's US stores unsocial outsell Amazon.
In the middle, Amazon is larger than Walmart but smaller than Walmart positive Sam's Club.
On the precocious estimate, Amazon outsells Walmart and Sam's Club combined.

A connection astir the number astir often quoted successful the press. NRF's Top 100, prepared by Kantar, puts Amazon's US income astatine $293.9 billion. That fig is not incorrect truthful overmuch arsenic not comparable -- it is not a GMV number. It besides sits good supra the measured first-party estimate of astir $159 cardinal and acold beneath immoderate GMV estimate, and its method cannot beryllium reproduced from the outside. If you spot Amazon and Walmart classed against each other, cheque which ground each 1 is connected earlier you tie a conclusion from the gap.

What Should You Do With This Monday Morning?

Look astatine who is not connected your list.

The Fortune 500 could not spot A&P successful 1950 because A&P did not fresh its meaning of a institution worthy ranking. Today, 4 of the 12 largest online sellers to American consumers -- Temu, SHEIN, TikTok Shop and AliExpress -- look obscurity successful NRF's Top 100, because nary of them files pinch the Securities and Exchange Commission arsenic a US retailer. Temu's US integer business is larger than Target's. SHEIN's is larger than Sam's Club's. TikTok Shop grew 68% past year.

If your competitory group is built from a modular ranking, it mightiness person a akin spread successful it. The unsighted spot is ne'er the institution you are watching. It is the class you did not deliberation to look at.

It is simply a virtual certainty that these will not ever beryllium the apical retailers successful America, and that immoderate subordinate cipher is talking capable astir coming will yet beryllium atop the list. TikTok Shop? An AI-native retailer? Whatnot? Something nary of america has heard of?

I can't hold to find out.