Mexico Won’t Frac All Their Basins, Yet They Keep Importing U.S. Gas

President Claudia Sheinbaum during a regular greeting briefing successful Mexico City.

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Mexico consumes astir 9 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day). Mexico imports 6.5 bcfd by pipeline from the U.S. This amounts to 75% of Mexico’s demand. Since the U.S. has been phenomenally successful pinch shale gas, its confederate neighbour can’t thief but recognize its ain potential. The authorities appointed a committee to boost soul state production, and made recommendations. How sensible are these recommendations?

The state-owned lipid company, Pemex, plans to summation home accumulation to 4 bcfd by 2030, and this is existent progress. But it’s not capable to extremity Mexico importing state from the U.S. Mexico needs to nutrient much gas.

Mexico’s Vision To Meet Electrical Power Needs.

Natural state is conscionable a portion of Mexico’s imagination to summation electrical power. The larger imagination is extraordinary. In total, Mexico has announced complete $42 cardinal dollars to summation their powerfulness capacity by 32 GW (giga watts) by 2030. 10 GW of this caller powerfulness will beryllium 5 caller combined-cycle state plants. The remainder will beryllium renewables, pinch star starring the pack. President Claudia Sheinbaum wants renewable sources to turn from 24% of full powerfulness coming to 38% by 2030.

Where Will Gas Come From For New Gas Plants?

Mexico has basins that should beryllium accessible to unconventional production. Mexico holds complete 140 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) of unconventional state resources, mostly successful bluish shale aliases tight soil basins. This is simply a ample number. But it is mini potatoes compared pinch 281 Tcf successful the Delaware basin, the largest deposit of lipid and state ever documented by the USGS successful the USA. The Delaware, successful New Mexico and West Texas, is portion of the larger Permian basin, and is 1 of the world’s premier basins for producing lipid and gas. Clearly, the information for producing much state is correct location successful Mexico’s backmost yard.

Table: Unconventional state plays successful Mexico.

The array shows the 3 unconventional state basins. The first 2 are successful the northbound of Mexico. Infrastructure successful the Burgos is partially developed arsenic it’s been producing for decades. But further advances are analyzable because the area is an organized crime risk, which affects finance and security policies. The Burgos is geologically continuous pinch the Eagle Ford play successful Texas, which produces 4.3 bcfd each by itself—so the committedness is there.

The Sabinas-Burro-Picachos play is the largest, but the slightest developed. There are regulatory problems because the authorities is governed by guidance parties.

Tampico-Misantla, The Southern Basin Excluded.

But what astir confederate state basins successful Mexico? The Tampico-Misantla basin contains 20 Tcf of unconventional gas, which whitethorn not beryllium captious to proviso Mexico. But it besides holds 35 cardinal barrels of unconventional crude oil. This is fundamentally each of Mexico’s identified shale lipid resource. If this basin is not developed, 1 of Latin America’s premier shale lipid plays will beryllium lost.

The authorities committee recommended against fracking successful this region, because the Tampico-Misantla basin is densely populated, and it underlies indigenous tribes who powerfully reason fracking. Further, the basin contains freshwater aquifers utilized for drinking, livestock, and agriculture. As the mighty Permian basin, successful West Texas, has taught us, tapping tremendous quantities of freshwater from aquifers to usage for fracking has raised concerns. Number 1, because each good requires up to 20 cardinal gallons of caller h2o to frac a emblematic horizontal well. Number 2, because the Permian lies successful a godforsaken wherever freshwater is precious.

President Sheinbaum made this a prerequisite: “Without confirmed heavy saline reservoirs, the anticipation of unconventional exploitation successful either basin closes entirely.” The prohibition was accompanied by a related restriction: that an independent monitoring strategy beryllium installed to screen “aquifer integrity, biology impact, and seismic activity.”

These other restrictions will adhd to Pemex’s financial burden, since they’re already carrying 1 of the heaviest debts of immoderate nationalist power institution successful the world.

Another rumor is that the fraction of produced h2o (water produced alongside gas) usually increases complete time. This wastewater has to beryllium reinjected underground, aliases cleaned up astatine the surface, which is much expensive. Reinjection tin lead to induced earthquakes, immoderate arsenic large arsenic magnitude 5, arsenic happened successful Oklahoma successful the 1910 decade and still occurs successful this decade successful the Permian basin.

Northern Basins Are Frackable.

In ray of these issues, the committee recommended against fracking successful the confederate Tampico-Misantla basin, but redirected fracking to basins that incorporate saltwater alternatively than freshwater aquifers. President Sheinbaum confirmed that fracking would not beryllium allowed successful the Tampico-Misantla basin.

But the shale basins successful bluish Mexico (see table) are expected to beryllium saltwater basins. And truthful are candidates for existent fracking technology. President Sheinbaum’s prerequisite astir a strategy to show aquifer integrity whitethorn find learnings successful an extended surveillance of producing wells and h2o wells successful coalbed methane plays successful Australia, which has been documented.

There is 1 proviso: the saltwater from aquifers has to beryllium cleaned up earlier it tin beryllium utilized to frac caller wells. If this tin beryllium done astatine a reasonable cost, U.S. shale fracking and good designs for agelong horizontal wells successful stacked pay are good known and tin beryllium deployed. Mexico tin study from experts successful the Delaware portion of the Permian basin of New Mexico, conscionable crossed the border.