Topline
Some Democrats are sounding alarms that authorities Rep. Francesca Hong, the antiauthoritarian socialist who is starring polls successful the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, could suffer to a Republican successful November—a consequence successful a number of races crossed the state wherever progressives person won their primaries.
Wisconsin Gubernatorial campaigner Francesca Hong (L) perceive to Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) speak earlier being introduced during a run rally connected August 2, 2026 successful Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Joshua Lott/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
A drawstring of surveys show Hong pinch a large polling lead heading into Tuesday’s race: A caller State Navigate poll shows her winning 44% of votes, followed by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley pinch 22%, while a Marquette University Law School poll showed her up pinch 38% of the vote, followed by erstwhile Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who has since dropped out, and Crowley successful third, though 34% were undecided.
Some Democrats are informing that Hong mightiness not beryllium capable to hit presumptive Republican nominee Tom Tiffany successful the wide election—Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who endorsed Crowley, said “probably not” when asked precocious by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel if Hong could triumph successful November and he would not perpetrate to endorsing her aliases campaigning pinch her if she wins the primary, he told Politico.
Crowley besides told Axios “people don’t for illustration socialists” and “socialists don’t canvass very bully . . . truthful it’s starring maine to judge that she can’t win.”
The State Navigate canvass shows Hong losing support to Tiffany among Democratic superior voters successful November—70% said they would decidedly backmost Hong, but 3% said they would astir apt support Tiffany and 5% said they would decidedly backmost Tiffany.
An earlier Marquette Law School poll recovered Barnes was the only Democratic superior campaigner pinch an advantage complete Tiffany successful the wide election, while Hong trailed Tiffany by 3 percent points.
In a motion that Republicans position Hong arsenic a weaker candidate, an advertisement by Right Direction Wisconsin, which is linked to the Republican Governors Association, billed Hong arsenic excessively wide and highlighted her push to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which is simply a strategy immoderate see designed to rally support among Democratic voters, The New York Times noted.
Big Number
95.5%. Those are Hong’s likelihood of winning the primary, according to the Kalshi prediction market.
Tangent
Abdul El-Sayed’s triumph successful the Michigan Democratic Senate superior is different plaything authorities title that will trial the progressive activity successful the wide election. El-Sayed won his superior by a thinner-than-expected separator past week, and polls show a near-tie betwixt him and the Republican nominee, erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers. President Donald Trump celebrated El-Sayed’s triumph arsenic “great news for the Republican Party.” Unlike Hong, El-Sayed isn’t an charismatic personnel of the Democratic Socialists of America and he had the backing of salient progressives, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., though it’s not uncommon that they wouldn’t make endorsements successful gubernatorial races successful states they don’t represent.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
“It would beryllium bully for @AbdulElSayed if Francesca Hong loses her bid to go the Democratic nominee successful Wisconsin adjacent week,” longtime Democratic run advisor David Axelrod tweeted past week. “He is simply a superior person. She is simply a font of zany liberal, module lounge exotica.”
Key Background
Hong is among 4 Democrats moving to switch Evers, who is retiring astatine the extremity of the year. Crowley initially suspended his run successful early July and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, past re-entered the title 10 days later erstwhile Rodriguez dropped out. Barnes besides dropped out, citing Hong’s lead successful a statement. Hong has faced disapproval for a bid of arguable past societal media posts, including bashing Thanksgiving successful 2020, alleging the vacation is “celebrating colonialism.” She faced much disapproval for her roundabout reply to CNN past week erstwhile asked if she wanted to “cancel Thanksgiving,” arsenic she advocated for successful 2020, past reversed her position successful an question and reply pinch Politico, telling the outlet past week it’s really her favourite holiday.
further reading
Wisconsin Gov. Candidate Hong Faces Backlash Over ‘Cancel Thanksgiving’ Comment—Even From Democrats (Forbes)
Progressive El-Sayed Wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate Primary—Results Much Closer Than Expected (Forbes)
Establishment Democrats Line Up Behind Progressive El-Sayed After Tight Race Divided Party (Forbes)
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