Tesla CEO Elon Musk could person taken the shape astatine past night’s “We, Robot” event and put a batch of fears to rest.
He could person released broad information information for the company’s Full Self-Driving characteristic that showed existent advancement for the driver-assist feature, contradicting each the crowdsourced data that’s retired location making FSD look genuinely awful.
He could person announced that the Cybercab, a sleek small two-seater pinch butterfly-wing doors, would beryllium a geofenced, Level 4, fleet-owned vehicle, operating successful a fewer prime markets pinch impressive-looking margins.
He could person provided an ounce of item astir the Cybercab’s exertion stack, including its sensors, imagination system, and onboard processing power. And he could person shocked the manufacture and amazed galore of his doubters by embracing lidar, the laser sensor that serves arsenic a important redundant strategy for each different driverless conveyance connected Earth.
But he did nary of those things. Instead, he put connected what arguably looked for illustration a awesome show, complete pinch clone movie posters, a ton of delicious-looking food, and robot bartenders. And he fell backmost connected the aforesaid old, tired promises of a afloat autonomous conveyance that was “just 2 years away.”
We’ve been down this roadworthy before. Many times.
Image: Tesla
“Prototype hardware that useful successful a constricted demo is cool, interesting, and good to remark on,” Phil Koopman, an AV master from Carnegie Mellon, wrote successful his newsletter this morning. “But it is not production, and hardware is not the limit to autonomous vehicles. Software is the agelong rod successful the tent.”
At first glance, it would look arsenic if the arena did the trick. There were plentifulness of Tesla fans who were thoroughly impressed by what they saw past nighttime and fresh to state that it was “game over” for each different subordinate successful the field. The Robovan wowed many pinch its Art Deco styling. And affirmative vibes extended to the company’s astir bullish investors, immoderate of whom participated successful Musk’s taxable parkland acquisition and came distant everlastingly altered.
Image: Tesla
Wedbush expert Dan Ives, who was successful attendance, dismissed immoderate banal diminution successful the aftermath of the arena — Tesla was trading down by astir 9 points successful early trading Friday — arsenic a “knee-jerk reaction” that would yet correct itself. “We powerfully disagree pinch the conception that past nighttime was a disappointment,” he wrote Friday, “as we would reason the other seeing Cybercab pinch our ain eyes and the monolithic improvements successful Optimus which we interacted pinch passim the evening.”
It appears to beryllium mislaid connected immoderate group really overmuch things person changed since 2016, erstwhile Musk first promised that Full Self-Driving was a specified “two years away.” Many look to beryllium stuck successful that outdated mindset that autonomous driving was an easy problem to lick and that afloat driverless cars were connected the cusp of taking complete the world.
Image: Tesla
Since then, liking rates person skyrocketed, the buckets of ample task superior backing person dried up, and astir of the awesome players moving connected this exertion person since reconfigured their timelines to relationship for really agelong it will return for self-driving cars to beryllium they tin beryllium safer than humans. Even Waymo, which is acold and distant the leader successful the space, is taking things existent slowly, 1 metropolis astatine a time. It can’t committedness the world; the institution is still trying to fig retired highways.
Musk is promising the opposite. He said that Tesla plans to motorboat afloat autonomous driving successful Texas and California adjacent year, pinch the Cybercab entering accumulation by 2026. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y vehicles pinch “unsupervised” Full Self-Driving would travel first. But he promised that group could moreover bargain the Cybercab for a value “less than $30,000.” Potential owners would beryllium for illustration shepherds, tending their flock of small driverless cabs, roaming the streetscape.
Last night, his transportation veered utopian, arsenic images of parking tons transformed into verdant gardens displayed connected the elephantine screens supra him. (I telephone this “reverse Joni Mitchell-ing.”)
“We want to person a fun, breathtaking future,” he said, “that if you could look successful a crystal shot and spot that future, you’d beryllium like, ‘Yes, I wish I could beryllium location now.’”
It was benignant of bully to perceive Mr. “Dark MAGA” articulate a brighter imagination for the future, but aft the event, it’s moreover little clear really we’ll get there. We sewage nary specifications astir really he will flooded the tremendous obstacles successful his path. Here’s a speedy rundown of immoderate of the issues that went unresolved:
- Regulatory approval. Tesla will request to get a licence from the California DMV to run afloat driverless vehicles connected nationalist roads. And successful bid to do that, it will request to show that its vehicles tin run safely — which truthful far, the institution has not done. And to nutrient a wholly steering wheel-less Cybercab will require waivers from the national government. That is simply a multi-month process, and occurrence is acold from guaranteed.
- Liability. What happens erstwhile a driverless Tesla crashes? Who takes ineligible responsibility? So far, Tesla has actively avoided accepting liability for its driver-assist crashes. And Musk has said he would proceed to dodge liability unless location was thing “endemic pinch the design” of the vehicle.
- Remote assistance. What happens erstwhile a driverless Tesla gets stuck somewhere? Or becomes disabled? Other AV operators, for illustration Waymo and Cruise, person procedures successful spot for distant operators to effort to move the conveyance retired of the way. And if each other fails, they dispatch crews of technicians who travel retired and manually thrust the vehicle. How do you do that pinch a conveyance without a steering instrumentality and pedals?
- Fleet maintenance. Tesla concisely showed an image of a snake-like robot vacuum cleaning immoderate crumbs disconnected the backseat of the Cybercab. But fleet attraction is simply a batch much involved. Who’s going to cleanable the cameras during the wintertime aliases complaint the conveyance erstwhile the artillery runs low?
- Emergency detection. Other robotaxi companies person struggled to respond to emergency vehicles, unexpected detours, and different separator cases that could arise. Tesla was investigated by the national government for complete a twelve incidents successful which its vehicles utilizing Autopilot collided pinch stationary emergency vehicles.
This is conscionable scratching the surface
This is conscionable scratching the surface. Kyle Vogt, the ex-CEO of Cruise, posted connected X a beautiful thorough database of his ain questions for Tesla, astir of which went wholly unanswered. And this coming from a feline who was pushed retired of his ain company for screwing up the consequence to 1 of those hard-to-predict separator cases (a quality driver struck a pedestrian, sending her flying into the way of 1 of Cruise’s robotaxis).
It seems improbable that Musk will meet a akin destiny arsenic Vogt, contempt fumbling the shot truthful badly. We’ve already seen the kinds of decease and demolition that person resulted from his company’s fierce push into autonomous technology. And truthful far, he’s been successful successful avoiding those consequences.
But erstwhile the driver vanishes, on pinch the steering instrumentality and different controls, location will beryllium nary 1 near to blasted but the feline who sold it.