The 2026 midterms have arrived.
Beyond authority of Congress, Tuesday's ballot volition exemplify the degree of Silicon Valley's governmental power and the breadth of the AI backlash.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, in particular, has a lot at stake, alongside document donations powering a last-minute attempt to preserve a Texas Senate place and perchance the GOP majority, too.
In supplement to the candidates, there are big ballot questions looming, none additional so than the California prosperity tax fight.
Here's what we're watching.
Ohio Senate
Candidates: Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican; erstwhile Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat; Bill Redpath, a libertarian; and Greg Levy, an independent
Where it stands: Husted, a erstwhile lieutenant governor, is trying to suspend on to Vice President JD Vance's Senate seat, but he's facing a fierce difficulty from Brown, a erstwhile three-term legislator who is seeking to come back to Congress. Brown has criticized Husted for his former assistance for data center development. Husted has stated the matter have to be remaining to communities and no longer supports offering tax incentives for new data center construction. Earlier this summer, Senate Republicans' run arm warned AI labs that if Husted goes downward "and data centers get the blame, politicians throughout the nation volition obtain notice — and they volition not go near the next one."
Polls close: 7:30 pm EST
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."
History: President Donald Trump won the province by 11 points. Brown misplaced to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Republican, by fair under 4 points.
Texas Senate
Candidates: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican; State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat; Ted Brown, a libertarian
Where it stands: Paxton is expecting to keep the place in Republican hands following Trump's endorsement pushed him complete Sen. John Cornyn following a bitter chief and runoff. Cornyn warned that if Paxton won, Republicans would have to expend important sums to assistance an officeholder saddled alongside scandals, impeachment, and a separation on "biblical grounds." Enter Musk. The world's richest man has been frequently trashing Talarico on X. More importantly, Musk has donated at smallest $158 myriad that has been routed to a pro-Paxton excellent PAC.
Polls close: Most polls in the province near at 8 pm EST, but for locations in the Mountain Time Zone they near at 9 pm EST.
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."
History: In 2024, President Donald Trump won the province by approximately 14 points. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican, won reelection by fair under 9 points. No Texas Democrat has won a statewide ballot since 1994.
Michigan Senate
Candidates: Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat; erstwhile Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican; Douglas P. Marsh, Green Party; Lydia Christensen, Libertarian Party
Where it stands: No competition compares to the perform of the Michigan Senate race. On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens, who misplaced to El-Sayed following a bitter primary, reversed herself and issued a last-minute endorsement of Rogers. Beyond the headlines, the competition offers several engaging guideline contrasts. Echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders (and Trump), El-Sayed has called for the authorities to obtain equity stakes in AI companies. El-Sayed additionally wants to power tech giants akin Microsoft to divest from AI companies akin OpenAI and Anthropic. Rogers, the Republican hopeful, has called for a intermission on data center betterment in the state. If Republicans desire to clasp the majority, Rogers volition nearly certainly need to flip the seat.
Polls close: Most polls in the province near at 8 pm EST. For counties in the Central Time Zone, polls near at 9 p.m EST.
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Lean Democrat."
History: In 2024, Trump won by fair complete 1 point. At the identical time, Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly attack Rogers by approximately 202,000 votes. Michigan has not elected a Republican legislator since 1994.
Michigan 7th District
Candidates: Rep. Tom Barrett, a Republican; Sunrise Movement cofounder William Lawrence, a Democrat; Shane Dedrick, Green Party
Where it stands: Barrett is seeking reelection in a southernmost Michigan district centered about Lansing. William Lawrence, a cofounder of the advancing climate-focused institution Sunrise Movement, has tried to tie Barrett to a projected $1 milliard hyperscale data center near Mason, Michigan. Barrett has stated that local officials have to be capable to create decisions concerning data centers, contrasting his views alongside Lawrence's assistance of a data center moratorium.
The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it a "Toss-Up."
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by fair complete 1 point, according to The Downballot's estimates. Barrett won by fair under 17,000 votes.
Ohio 9th District
Candidates: Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat; erstwhile Ohio province Rep. Derek Merrin, a Republican
Where it stands: Republicans' hopes of defying history and keep their bulk run squarely through Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a 22-term Ohio Democrat, and her northwestern Ohio district that stretches from the Indiana border to fair west of Cleveland. Kaptur has criticized Merrin for voting in favor of tax incentives for data center development. Merrin has stated Kaptur is "lying" concerning his record, but as part of a sweeping 2017 prosperity law, Ohio lawmakers voted to broaden the deadline for certain data centers to meet requirements for tax incentives.
The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as a "Lean Democrat."
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by approximately 11 points, according to The Downballot's estimates. Kaptur won by under 2,400 votes. Kaptur is one of 22 Democrats representing districts that Trump additionally won.
Pennsylvania 1st District
Candidates: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican; Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie, a Democrat
Where it stands: Fitzpatrick, a five-term Pennsylvania Republican, romped to reelection two years ago but is now fighting to suspend onto his seat. Harvie focused his archetypal ad of the broad ballot on his call for a data center moratorium. He additionally ruined Fitzpatrick complete the Republican's former assistance for a enormous Amazon data center in Falls Township, which is in Bucks County.
Polls close: 8 pm EST
The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."
History: In 2024, Trump narrowly misplaced the district, according to The Downballot's estimates. Fitzpatrick motionless effortlessly won reelection by nearly 13 points. He is one of fair three Republican lawmakers representing districts Trump lost.
Wisconsin 3rd District
Candidates: Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Republican; Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat
Where it stands: Van Orden, a two-term Wisconsin Republican, is trying to clasp on to his occidental Wisconsin district, which includes Eau Claire and La Crosse. Cooke, a erstwhile governmental adviser who now plant as a waitress, has echoed Sen. Bernie Sanders' call for a national moratorium on data center development. Cooke has additionally hammered Van Orden complete data centers. In response, Van Orden has accused Cooke of operating too closely alongside tech groups.
Polls close: 9 pm EST
The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as "Lean Democrat."
History: In 2024, Trump won the district by complete 7 points, according to The Downballot's estimates. Van Orden defeated Cooke by approximately 3 points.
California billionaire tax
What's on the ballot: A one-time 5% tax on Californians alongside complete $1 milliard in wealth. Two competing proposals would efficiently nullify the projected tax.
The sides: The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West labor union projected the tax. Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat who is a imaginable 2028 candidate, has lent his support, as has Sen. Bernie Sanders. Gov. Gavin Newsom, another imaginable 2028 candidate, is opposing the measure. A figure of Silicon Valley elites are additionally in opposition, including Google cofounder Sergey Brin.
Polls close: 11 pm EST
The outlook: There's been small polling this fall. The few community polls have been all complete the place. A latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies-Los Angeles Times study established opponents had a 50% to 42% border among apt voters.
Be prepared to wait: California has a lot of votes to count, and historically several races have taken days or equal weeks to call. The fact that there are three intertwined ballot initiatives may additionally create it additional difficult for news organizations to project a winner. In the event that multiple initiatives pass, the one that receives the most affirmative votes mostly trumps conflicting ones.
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Brent Griffiths is a elder newsman at Business Insider who covers AI and tech. Previously, he worked at the Washington Post. He started his occupation at Politico.
