The Ellisons may still get Warner Bros. But it won't be easy.

Jul 29, 2026 05:03 PM - 23 hours ago 60

Peter Kafka

By Peter Kafka Chief Correspondent covering media and technology

Larry Ellison and David Ellison astatine a Star Trek premiere, 2013

Up until past week, conscionable astir everyone successful Hollywood and Wall Street believed that Larry and David Ellison's Paramount was going to ain Warner Bros. Discovery successful the adjacent future.

Now an antitrust suit brought by California's lawyer wide and different authorities AGs has thrown that into doubt. The Paramount-WBD woody is connected clasp for months, aliases possibly more, while the lawsuit useful its measurement done the ineligible system.

There is simply a batch of rotation and posturing astir this one, pinch bully reason: There's a batch of uncertainty astir whether the Ellisons will yet get what they want.

I asked Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw, the well-sourced newsman who has been covering the ins and outs of the woody for astir a year, to locomotion maine done what happens next: Could this get settled earlier a tribunal verdict, and what would that look like? How mightiness this November's predetermination results impact each of this? And what does this mean for Netflix, which was going to bargain WBD earlier it walked away?

You tin perceive my full speech pinch Lucas, which besides tackles Netflix's maturation and engagement issues, and the very mixed authorities of Hollywood's theatrical business, successful my Channels podcast.

The pursuing is an edited excerpt of our conversation:

Peter Kafka: What are the likelihood that this suit gets settled earlier a verdict? That the Ellisons conscionable opportunity to the states, "Look, we'll springiness you something. It's much than we wanted to springiness you." And past the states say, "OK, this woody tin spell through."

Lucas Shaw: People thought that they would apt find immoderate colony earlier this proceedings started. That was the prevailing wisdom: That the states were fighting the woody because the Trump DOJ was not. And that they were improbable to triumph aliases really artifact the deal, but that they could garner immoderate concessions.

The past period has really damaged the accepted wisdom. A batch of people, myself included, person realized that possibly they underestimated the forces fighting against the deal.

I was successful that group too. I thought well, the Ellisons are gonna get this done 1 measurement aliases another. Some operation of brute unit and possibly governmental favors. They really want it, and they are consenting to walk an tremendous magnitude of money.

They were consenting to outbid Netflix, a overmuch larger, overmuch wealthier company. They spent months fighting the [Netflix-WBD deal], which astatine the clip seemed for illustration spoiled grapes. But they ended up playing a very canny governmental game, applying a batch of unit connected some Netflix and Warner Bros., to yet get it.

And while I thought that the states were going to conflict against the deal, I assumed that yet the Ellisons would prevail, which of course, they whitethorn still.

In position of what they could offer: One of the reasons why a colony whitethorn beryllium difficult — and of people this is each posturing and bargaining, truthful possibly it's easier than we deliberation — is that the Ellisons person been offering behavioral remedies. And the states are saying behavioral remedies don't really work.

They want structural remedies. So that would mean Paramount and Warner Brothers agreeing to waste things aliases divest things arsenic portion of this deal. There are assets that Paramount and Warner Brothers could divest, and it wouldn't really wounded the mixed institution that much. But they person not shown a willingness to get free of things.

Democrats could return backmost each aliases portion of Congress successful November. Is that a interest for Paramount?

Yes, but a mini one. There was ne'er a batch that legislators could do astir this deal. But particularly now that the federal authorities has blessed it, we're really successful the realm of the courts. I conjecture it could spell to the Supreme Court.

A Democrat-controlled House will beryllium annoying [for the Ellisons], particularly fixed the belief that David Ellison and the existent activity of Paramount has made changes to CBS News that person made them much friends to the Trump administration. And they're going to get CNN arsenic portion of this.

So location will beryllium a batch of scrutiny of immoderate happens pinch the news organizations. But that is abstracted from the woody itself.

What does Netflix deliberation astir this? Do they deliberation there's now an opportunity for them to extremity up pinch Warners aft all?

I deliberation for now they're conscionable sitting location pinch a large bucket of popcorn.

Look: If this woody falls apart, would Netflix look astatine it again? Sure. I interviewed Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos aft his woody fell apart, and he said thing like, "Maybe this'll travel astir again."

But their investors hated the deal. Their banal value has only continued to spell down since then. So the period to reengaging connected immoderate woody for illustration that would beryllium really high.

And if we're being honorable astir what's happening pinch Paramount and the Ellisons — unless there's immoderate melodramatic alteration of bosom for David Ellison, he's not giving up connected this woody very easily.