The $12.5 billion Lakers deal is a bet that sports TV will keep booming. The NFL may test that.

Bob Iger and Josh Kushner scheme to bargain the Los Angeles Lakers astatine a record-setting value of $12.5 billion. The champion statement for that price: The worth of sports TV deals is the 1 point that keeps going up, moreover arsenic the remainder of TV contracts.

But moreover though that's been existent for years, it doesn't mean it will ever beryllium true. One hint that things might beryllium changing: The all-powerful NFL — the point that keeps TV afloat — is starting to spot immoderate pushback from its TV partners, led by Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch's Fox.

In 2026, it is very difficult to ideate a world wherever the NFL isn't the astir powerful unit successful media. But John Ourand, who covers sports media for Puck, makes a lawsuit that its powerfulness could astatine slightest beryllium checked successful the years to come.

You tin perceive to our full conversation, which besides includes a look astatine Apple's sports strategy, and the WNBA's attack to media deals, connected my Channels podcast. The pursuing is an edited excerpt of our chat:

Peter Kafka: If Bob Iger and Josh Kushner are buying the Lakers astatine a $12.5 cardinal valuation, that intends they deliberation it will beryllium worthy moreover much successful the future. What's the statement for that?

John Ourand: In the past, each the valuations of [pro sports] teams were heavy weighted by the truth that media authorities deals support going up by 10%, 20% per year.

But media executives I talk to say, "If they're basing [the Lakers] valuation connected early media authorities deals, that's a mistake."

The Lakers make $200 cardinal a twelvemonth from their section rights. And the NBA conscionable sewage a caller woody (for nationalist rights) that pays $7.6 cardinal a year.

Their constituent is those numbers aren't going to spell up anytime soon?

They're saying, "The NFL will get much money. Cord-cutting's still happening. Broadcast TV is successful distress. They're not seeing astir arsenic overmuch money coming from streaming. So the media companies are saying, you know, "We could beryllium astatine the apex of it."

But erstwhile you talk to bankers and PE folks — this won't astonishment you — they say, "No, it's still going to support going up."

This is the mobility group person been debating for years — really overmuch longer tin sports authorities spell up, erstwhile everything other successful TV is contracting? But they person continued to spell up.

It is still chiefly an advertizing play. Sports is the past bastion of group watching live. It's been that lawsuit for a while, and it's the logic that broadcast networks and moreover cablegram networks are still profitable correct now.

So the bull lawsuit for sports authorities continuing to move guardant is … possibly the broadcast networks don't enactment healthy, but they still exist. And they person to person sports.

We're seeing different type of this statement correct now pinch the NFL, wherever Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch precocious made news by saying he's not presently negotiating a caller woody pinch the league.

As of a fewer months ago, astir group successful the media world thought the networks were going to renegotiate their existing deals pinch the convention and salary much per year, for much years, truthful they could support the NFL locked up.

What Lachlan yet said was, "You cognize what? We're gonna spot this done to the end. So we tin discuss now, but we're not opening our woody up early. It's gonna tally done to the extremity of the decade."

That seems for illustration a beautiful reasonable stance, but it's being treated for illustration a bombshell. Is the NFL's grip connected media authorities weakening?

There were immoderate early numbers of, like, an [rights fees that would costs an] other cardinal per twelvemonth per web that were floated. That number would put immoderate of the networks retired of business.

Look: The NFL is still No. 1, and nary of the networks want to unrecorded without the NFL.

But 1 point that's absorbing is that the NFL is talking to Paramount/CBS astir their woody because of the alteration of control.

So let's opportunity the NFL says, "OK, you cognize what? We can't travel to a woody pinch CBS. This package is unfastened for bidding." And it's a package of Sunday day games pinch up to six games each afternoon.

Who's stepping up for that package? There aren't a batch of different networks.

Every azygous broadcast web has a package, and there's cipher other that's bidding it up. And moreover arsenic powerful arsenic the NFL is, that's a problem.

You request much than 1 bidder for the value to spell up. They person conscionable capable bidders for conscionable capable packages. And I deliberation correct now we're seeing wherever the limits of that powerfulness dishonesty a small bit.

It almost feels for illustration a détente. Is that the correct analogy?

The NFL is still going to get what it needs to get. It conscionable isn't going to get its scope goal, I think.

After the NFL did $110 cardinal successful TV deals successful 2021, the networks were crying poor. But past they paid the NBA $76 billion.

And the NFL said: "Wait, I thought you were crying poor?" And past they spot that Fox finds for illustration a mates quarters successful the cushion to bargain Roku. So they're like, "Wait: How tin you beryllium crying mediocre connected 1 hand, and then, past connected the different hand, you do person this money?"

So the NFL wants to trial those limits.