I support wanting to constitute a station showing disconnected my latest graphics on pinch the latest information and forecasts, because the image they overgarment is 1 of a genuinely fucked planet. From the latest world aboveground temperatures to sea-surface temperatures to the latest El Niño forecasts to the Earth Energy Imbalance to albedo to polar ice. And past there’s everything else. There is truthful overmuch to constitute about, truthful overmuch to document, truthful galore warnings to give.
And past I think, “but tomorrow will beryllium moreover much fucked, truthful if I hold a day, the article will beryllium moreover stronger.” And truthful I hold and don’t post. And tomorrow comes and astir of the clip it’s much fucked, but sometimes it isn’t.
Collapse is some slow and fast. It’s glacial and it’s ray speed, gradually past suddenly. Total illness tomorrow aliases the time after, guaranteed! All humans will beryllium extinct by January 1, 2030. Or, conscionable maybe, location will beryllium immoderate benignant of post-apocalyptic dystopia infinitesimal connected March 17th, 2074. Is it excessively precocious successful the illness of everything to spell to Starbucks? When is the caller iPhone coming out?
The correct time will ne'er exist: a hypothetical section maximum of planetary fuckery. So I’m going to return a chance that tomorrow will not beryllium importantly much fucked than coming and stock immoderate graphics and data. Let’s person a look.
More fucked today. The satellite is connected time six pinch the world mean aboveground somesthesia supra 17.0°C. The only different years connected grounds that person surgery past this obstruction are 2023 and 2024. If we see the paleo-temperature record, past it is highly apt that 2023, 2024 and 2026 are the only years to break 17.0°C in the past 115,000 years.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? The world mean aboveground somesthesia will apt beryllium complete 17.0°C again tomorrow and for a fewer much days.
Meanwhile, taking the processing record-breaking El Niño into account, the afloat twelvemonth 2027 has a coagulated chance of breaking 1.70°C supra the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. So agelong Paris. It’s odds-on to spot a time supra 17.5°C adjacent year, pinch about a 35% chance of a afloat period registering an anomaly of 2.0°C aliases higher.
A decade from now, our lonely satellite will apt spot the first afloat twelvemonth pinch an anomaly supra 2.0°C, pinch a regular mid-Summer highest reaching complete 18.0°C.
More fucked today. It’s difficult to put into immoderate actual position conscionable really insanely basking the oceans each complete the satellite are astatine this moment. Back successful 2023, erstwhile caller records started to beryllium set, location was immense media liking successful the topic. Some of my graphics went viral, pinch images showing temperatures spiking almost vertically to caller grounds highs. Arguments complete the deficiency of Saharan particulate and the impacts of the caller IMO 2020 low-sulfur shipping substance regulations were successful the headlines.
And past there’s yesterday. It’s not conscionable that a caller grounds regular precocious was set, yesterday was the 55th consecutive caller regular grounds high, and the world oceans were a afloat 0.14°C hotter than immoderate erstwhile July 26th connected record. For statistic geeks, the existent somesthesia is much than 3.8 modular deviations supra the 1991-2020 mean. The regular temperatures are connected the precipice of mounting a caller grounds precocious somesthesia for immoderate clip of the year.
Is this being discussed successful mainstream media? Crickets. Global oceans teetering connected the edge? Crickets. Global impacts? Crickets.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? As you tin spot from the image above, location is an yearly highest that typically happens successful precocious March, and a smaller secondary highest that happens successful precocious August. Given the existent sea-surface temperature, it is very apt that a caller grounds will beryllium group sometime successful the adjacent fewer weeks.
What does this mean successful practice? Dead, dying and bleached coral. Marine heatwaves that origin wide die-offs for fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Toxic algae blooms. More aggravated hurricanes and typhoons, particularly successful the Pacific. And for humans, the illness of immoderate fisheries arsenic food populations migrate towards cooler polar waters.
More fucked today. The existent sea-surface somesthesia successful the Niño 3.4 region is astir 2.3°C supra the 1991-2020 average. Niño 3.4 is the area of the Pacific Ocean utilized to specify and quantify ENSO events. By immoderate humanities measure, this El Niño is already record-breaking. July 26th marked the 58th consecutive time pinch the Niño 3.4 region hitting a caller grounds regular high, astir 0.5°C supra the erstwhile regular grounds high.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? The latest CFSv2 exemplary run has this El Niño reaching a maximum Niño 3.4 anomaly of astir 4.3°C supra the 1991-2020 baseline successful November. For humanities purposes, the erstwhile grounds Niño 3.4 anomaly was 2.8°C during the 1997-98 El Niño.
Even Zeke Hausfather, who is known for being blimpish pinch his ambiance predictions, put the peak of this El Niño astatine complete 3.5°C.
There is simply nary humanities precedent for a world ambiance arena of this magnitude. Global business civilization has ne'er earlier confronted a planetary emergency arsenic perchance devastating. The precautionary rule says it should beryllium all-hands connected platform for each person, neighborhood, metropolis and state to hole for what whitethorn beryllium coming.
Here is simply a quote from Adam McKay’s Yellow Dot Studios: (p.s. nonstop this missive to your section governmental leaders).
This El Niño driven warming will lead to importantly much world flooding, fires, storms, droughts, deadly power events, vulnerable turbulence, and astir concerning, a important threat to nutrient proviso chains, crops, and powerfulness grids.
The erstwhile strongest recorded El Niño occurred successful 1877 starring to 40 cardinal deaths worldwide from famine.
And this coming El Niño arena looks to beryllium moreover stronger.
More fucked today. The “Earth Energy Imbalance” measures the quality betwixt incoming star power and the totality of outgoing energy, some reflected (short wave) and radiated (long wave). It gives a elemental accounting of power into the strategy versus power retired of the system. When the 2 are not successful balance, Earth either warms aliases cools. According to James Hansen, the “Earth’s power imbalance is the champion diagnostic of wherever ambiance is heading.”
As of the latest information from CERES for May, 2026, connected an annualized basis, the Earth Energy Imbalance shows the Earth warming astatine a complaint of astir 14 Hiroshima atomic bombs per second. This equals astir 1,200,000 Hiroshimas per time aliases 440 cardinal Hiroshimas worthy of planetary heating complete the past 12 months.
For those who want a much politically correct measurement to measurement the complaint of heating, the existent complaint is balanced to brewing astir 10.7 cardinal cups of beverage per second.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? As the satellite heats up during this El Niño , location will beryllium much outgoing longwave radiation (radiative heat). Given the spot of this El Niño , this is expected to put beardown downward unit from now until a fewer months aft the El Niño peaks later this year. However, the semipermanent anticipation is for the EEI to proceed to group caller grounds highs.
In different words, the satellite is not only heating coming astatine a adjacent grounds pace, but the complaint of heating will support expanding for the foreseeable future.
More fucked today. For those who want a speedy reminder, “albedo” measures the reflectivity of the planet. It is simply the percent of incoming star radiation that is reflected retired to abstraction alternatively of being absorbed and heating the planet. The little the albedo, the much sunlight reaches the planet’s aboveground to lukewarm the oceans, melt ice, and power onshore and the atmosphere.
The superior drivers of albedo are low-level unreality screen and polar snowfall and ice. Other drivers see ash and dust, deforestation, and declining concentrations of reflective aerosols. Because of the volatility associated pinch these drivers, albedo is champion measured complete longer mean periods.
Here is the 36-month moving mean for albedo, from February, 2003 done May, 2026, showing May’s albedo conscionable supra the grounds debased group successful February, 2026. Over the past 23 years albedo has dropped from 29.33% to 28.67%. While these values whitethorn look rather adjacent to each other, connected a percent basis, the satellite has mislaid astir 2.25% of its albedo during this period.
From this 2025 article successful Discover magazine:
For much than 2 decades, Earth has slow been increasing darker. Using 24 years of information from NASA’s Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), researchers person learned that this encroaching acheronian is because Earth is reflecting little sunlight, pinch the astir melodramatic dimming occurring successful the Northern Hemisphere.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? The anticipation is that albedo will conscionable support connected going down arsenic each the main drivers are expected to support expanding successful their impact. Less ice? Check! More ash? Check! More deforestation? Check! Decreasing aerosols? Check!
And what astir clouds? Virtually each world ambiance models foretell a important early alteration successful low-level marine unreality screen arsenic the satellite warms. This article gives 3 reasons scientists expect this to continue:
The first is simply a alteration successful human-caused aerosol emissions complete caller decades. Aerosols – tiny, light‑scattering particles produced chiefly by burning fossil fuels – power the statement of clouds, by acting arsenic “seeds” for unreality droplets to form.
Second, expanding attraction of greenhouse gases successful the ambiance has led to a warmer and drier atmosphere, which besides helps to dissipate clouds.
Finally, unreality screen decreases person besides been linked to water aboveground warming, which affects atmospheric humidity and, thus, cloudiness. Reduced cloudiness leads to much sunlight being absorbed astatine the water aboveground – and much warming. This amplifying loop is known arsenic a “cloud feedback”.
And this article finds that decreasing albedo owed to unreality nonaccomplishment is portion of a larger feedback loop:
The squad besides recovered that the thinning of debased clouds … amplifies world warming done a feedback loop: Rising sea-surface temperatures lead to less clouds, meaning little reflected sunlight and a warmer planet.
Declining albedo is “The Great Darkening.”
More fucked today. One of the agleam spots connected the world doom-o-rama instrumentality is that polar crystal is not group to deed a caller debased this year. As of July 26th, Arctic sea-ice grade is 8th lowest connected grounds for the day, pinch information backmost to 1979. Likewise, Antarctic sea-ice grade is 5th lowest connected grounds for the day. Taken together, world sea-ice grade is 4th lowest connected grounds for the day, astir 2.1 modular deviations beneath the 1991-2020 mean, but complete 1.1 cardinal quadrate kilometers supra the grounds debased for the day, group successful 2024.
How fucked will we beryllium tomorrow? Will a caller grounds debased maximum for world sea-ice grade beryllium group later this year? Maybe. Will the Arctic spot an ice-free summertime successful 2027, a alleged “Blue Ocean Event”? Probably not. But the semipermanent early of crystal connected this satellite is dire. The consensus sentiment of ambiance scientists is that the Arctic will spot its first ice-free time successful the 2040s aliases 2050s. My individual Over/Under is 2043.
But the existent early fuckedness happening pinch Arctic oversea crystal is that a definite fucking horrible quality portion of excrement managed to unopen down “PIOMAS” Arctic data — the superior information root for Arctic measurement and thickness. In different words, the early of crystal is moreover much fucked because we person mislaid 1 of the astir important devices to foretell its future.
And finally, moreover though I neglected to mention a fewer things, you surely are pursuing the latest news:
More fucked coming than yesterday and moreover much fucked tomorrow. I’ll time off it to the willing scholar to way down the accusation and capable successful the details.
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