MLB Best Home Run Bets For August 3, 2026—Wood And Aranda

James Wood has deed 30 location runs this play and should motorboat different tonight.

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The MLB champion location tally bets person been successful 1 of the longest droughts of the year, pinch 8 consecutive whiffs connected location tally props. Cold streaks are inevitable for long-shot bets, specified arsenic location tally props.

Nevertheless, pinch an 18-67 grounds and 3 no-bets connected location tally props this season, anyone who stake $100 connected each of the listed location tally bets has profited $461. There’s still wiggle room to get a fewer much location tally props incorrect without drying up the profit, but where’s the nosy successful that?

Tonight’s MLB slate features 8 games, starting astatine 6:40 p.m. ET, and awarding bettors pinch ample location tally props to prime from. A slugging outfielder and a left-handed-hitting first baseman who hammers righties person the astir appealing location tally bets connected Monday’s MLB slate.

MLB Best Home Run Bets

James Wood (Washington Nationals - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+267) astatine DraftKings Sportsbook

James Wood is launching location runs this year, hitting 30 done 531 sheet appearances. The 23-year-old outfielder has drilled 21 location runs against right-handed pitching, 10 connected the roadworthy and six connected the roadworthy against righties.

Wood’s batted-ball information this play is eye-popping. Among 251 qualified batters successful 2026, Wood is 4th successful barrels per sheet quality complaint (11.2%), 2nd successful barrels per batted-ball arena complaint (20.9%), 3rd successful hard-hit complaint (58.2%), first successful fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (100.4 mph), eighth successful maximum exit velocity (116.3 mph) and tied for 17th successful launch-angle sweet-spot complaint (40.1%).

Wood has the optimal starting pitching matchup connected today’s slate to deed a location run. Aaron Nola’s 2.05 location runs allowed per 9 innings (HR/9) are the astir among today’s probable starting pitchers. Nola has allowed astatine slightest 1 location tally successful 16 of 22 starts this year, including 4 consecutive and 8 of his past nine. The seasoned right-handed pitcher has besides coughed up aggregate location runs successful 9 starts.

His splits are besides interesting. Nola has allowed 16 location runs to left-handed batters, 13 astatine location and 8 astatine location to lefties.

The parkland factors are besides a positive for Wood’s outlook to deed a location tally tonight. Citizen Bank Park’s 116 parkland facet for location runs since 2025 ranks tied for fourth. Wood should deed a location tally tonight, and his +267 likelihood aren’t excessively chalky.

Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420) astatine FanDuel Sportsbook

Jonathan Aranda deed a career-high 14 location runs past year, and he’s matched that people this season. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has deed 13 of his homers against righties this year.

He has deed only 5 location runs connected the road, albeit 4 against right-handed pitching connected the road. Fortunately, for illustration Aranda’s location ballpark, Tropicana Field, Coors Field is simply a homer-friendly venue, pinch a parkland facet of 111 for location runs since past year.

Aranda besides has mostly above-average batted-ball data. Among 251 qualified hitters this season, Aranda is 86th successful barrels per sheet quality complaint (6.7%), tied for 83rd successful barrels per batted-ball arena complaint (10.5%), 64th successful hard-hit complaint (45.1%), tied for 90th successful fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.0 mph), tied for 98th successful maximum exit velocity (111.4 mph) and tied for 41st successful launch-angle sweet-spot complaint (38.1%).

Aranda has a positive matchup tonight. Michael Lorenzen has allowed 16 location runs astatine 1.38 HR/9 successful 22 starts this season. The 34-year-old righty has allowed 12 location runs to left-handed batters, 8 astatine location and six astatine location to lefties. Aranda should return advantage of the platoon advantage, favorable matchup and parkland factors to deed a location tally tonight.