Intro
The DRAM and NAND flash manufacturers at error for the ongoing RAM, SSD, and GPU cost increases have eventually figured out how to suppress the market’s earlier cyclical pricing nature, and it’s by committing to larger, longer long-term agreements alongside small customers. This part profound dives into what these companies are saying out noisy -- akin Amazon’s involvement in pushing additional customers into haze services from on-premises -- and additionally SSD and RAM pricing.
Editor's note: This was initially published on September 21, 2026 as a video. This satisfied has been adapted to written format for this part and is unchanged from the first publication.
Credits
Host, Writing
Steve Burke
Video Editing
Vitalii Makhnovets
Tim Phetdara
Writing
Tannen Williams
Writing, Web Editing
Jimmy Thang
Since final September, the average cost of SSDs and RAM have continued to climb: prices have risen by 137% for 2 TB NVMe SSDs on average, 183% for 2 TB SATA SSDs, 363% for 32GB DDR5 kits, and 294% for 32GB DDR4 kits, alongside AVG prices collected from the samples of merchandise listings stated below the chart.
In several situations, it’s worse: DDR5-6000 64GB kits have climbed from $240 to $1,300-$1,400 on average, an addition of about 483%.
If you had dreams of a residence server or a high-end engineering scheme or editing device alongside 128GB of memory, that’s gone up equal more.
We bought 128 GB of DDR5-6400 GSkill ECC Registered recollection in 2024 for $1,060 to use in an editing machine.
Today, that RAM isn’t equal available.
If you bought akin RAM, you could get scalped by a third-party seller for several NEMIX 128GB of a akin spec for $6,800, or perchance you’d favor 512GB -- item that used to disbursal $4,200 -- for $23,811.
And 99 cents, since fuck you.
In 2024, we additionally bought a 4 TB Samsung 990 Pro for $390. Today, that identical run is $1,100, or a 254% increase.
This is the K-shaped economy. From a sole rod of 16 GB to a few sticks totaling 128 GB, everyone is getting ripped-off. People who desire to perform games for a hobby are robbed and group who desire to commencement a endeavor that needs a high-end device power discover it cheaper to rent a scheme or use haze computing, which kind of seems akin the endgame.
This enormous amusement to data centers isn’t fair affecting RAM and SSD prices for PC enthusiasts – it’s affecting the prices of all person electronics for exactly everybody.
According to the IDC:
After Apple risen prices on its MacBook Neo, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, Mac Studio, iPad, iPad Air, iPad Pro, iPad Mini, HomePod, HomePod Mini, Apple TV Box, and Vision Pro headset, Apple’s Tim Apple noted in his final earnings call as CEO, “We reluctantly raised prices I would say and we did it since we’re in what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on the recollection pricing alongside exponential increases in recollection prices.”
XBOX lately announced its latest circular of cost increases, stating, “Effective August 1, 2026, we volition be updating prices worldwide. The cost of XBOX consoles volition addition by US$100 for 512 GB models and US$150 for 1 TB models. We volition additionally be sunsetting our 2 TB model.” The business added, “Unfortunately, console retention and recollection prices have risen by additional than 2.5x and we anticipate another doubling by the autumn of 2027.”
Amazon raised prices on its Echo Dot, Echo Show 11, Kindle, Kindle Paperwhite, Fire TV Stick HD, Fire TV Stick 4K Max, eero 7, and eero Pro 7.
Nintendo inflated its Switch 2 MSRP, and Sony’s already risen its PS5 prices twice inside the final year.
TechInsights CSO, reported via the New York Times, added, “Yes, the prices of your iPhone are going up. But it’s additionally imaginable the prices of your M.R.I. machines may go up, or worse than that, that M.R.I. device may not get made.”
Meanwhile, Chinese newcomers CXMT and YMTC have continued their fast expansions, alongside YMTC breaking into the earth top 3 NAND manufacturers by shipments, surpassing Kioxia, Micron, and SanDisk, and CXMT now holding 10% of the earth DRAM market portion by revenue, up 6 percent points YoY, as reported by Counterpoint Research.
And yet being challenged by the United States Government for entrance, notwithstanding marketing consumer-grade memory.
To us, the most concerning part of this is that the recollection suppliers are trying to eventually bust the cyclical nature of recollection pricing, which would average they desire to eliminate the forthcoming low item for prices, particularly for consumers.
Overview
Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) are made between recollection manufacturers and ample clients, frequently unnamed. These clients nearly certainly contain NVIDIA.
Shortages caused by AI petition could keep provision fair tight adequate to keep the currently inflated RAM and SSD prices for years to come.
Throughout the former year, all important manufacturers altered their client association strategies, now forming 3-5 twelvemonth long-term agreements (or LTAs) with, and allocating 50 - 70% of their outputs to lone their largest 5-16 customers.
Some form of agreements have been in location alongside important customers since, basically, the dawn of period -- but the capability allocated to them and the duration are concerning.
Chosun Daily explains:
“LTAs are transforming the industry from a 3–5-year boom-bust sequence into a long-term order-based example alongside pre-secured demand.”
In another words, the manufacturers went from prioritizing enterprises complete consumers to now prioritizing their 10 largest companies complete everybody.
In fact, gratitude to all the important haze assistance providers and hyperscalers purchasing up all the provision and sending prices skyrocketing, smaller businesses can no longer oversee on-site server upgrades, forcing them to rent haze infrastructure instead.
Fortunately for the hyperscalers, JP Morgan notes, “While LTAs may assistance keep expenses manageable for hyperscalers, they dramatically decrease the elasticity of recollection fabricators to location petition for recollection chips in person goods.”
LTAs Restructuring Market Dynamics
Starting alongside the long-term agreements, we can appearance to all of the manufacturers’ latest earnings reports:
Micron reported that its 16 LTAs currently portray 20% of its DRAM and a third of its NAND supply, noting, “When completed, we anticipate about fractional or additional of our business income to be under these SCAs alongside customers throughout end markets.”
SanDisk, whose Datacenter and Edge income risen by 1,298% and 392% YoY during income for its person section decreased by 5% YoY, reported that it’s allocating 50% of its bit output in 2027 and 67% of its bit output in 2028 to LTAs.
“We are on track toward our 50% LTA quantity safety for calendar twelvemonth 28 alongside key customers.”
In an earnings call, Samsung stated, “We have already finalized agreements alongside the top five earth data center customers, [and] are additionally in the final stages of talks alongside five additional important accounts to assistance their AI-related demand.” The business added, “We average to keep elasticity in provision allocation and scheme to allocate about 60% to 70% of our total capability to long-term provision contracts during preserving adequate capability to assistance customers without multi-year contracts.”
And Western Digital’s CEO affirmed, stating, “The final period we reported on LTAs, we talked concerning having one LTA of a ample client all the way up to calendar twelvemonth '29. But we're extremely much in the throes of discussions alongside customers to established LTAs for calendar '29, '30 and '31 as well. So visibility remains extremely strong, customer-driven petition for LTAs extending all the way out to '31 remains extremely strong.”
As for the effects: our understanding is that these long-term agreements volition basically alter the way the recollection market plant for consumers and everyone else. The Korea Herald explains this:
“The change marks a departure from an industry lengthy dominated by quarterly negotiations and short-term orders, possibly softening the boom-and-bust sequence that has defined the recollection endeavor for decades.”
Samsung reiterated this in its latest earnings call, stating, “Historically, the recollection industry has informed recurring cycles of upturns and downturns driven by petition fluctuations in consumer-oriented applications. However, by expanding the portion of longer-term backlog-driven business, we anticipation to considerably enhance the stability and visibility of our business.”
And Samsung’s not solitary – all manufacturers are echoing the identical “enhanced visibility” expression in several manner or another.
One industry analyst, reported via The Korea Herald, asserted:
"LTAs are improbable to eliminate the recollection cycle, but they could decrease earnings volatility by locking in petition for longer periods. How productive they are volition depend on how the contracts clasp up in the next downturn.”
LTA Customers
Amidst the height of the shortage, petition from haze providers continued to increase:
TrendForce anticipates CapEx for the world’s nine important CSPs to addition from $922 milliard in 2026 to $1.383 trillion in 2027, explaining:
“The fast addition volition be driven in part by soaring recollection agreement prices and sturdy procurement demand. TrendForce estimates that DRAM and NAND Flash blended volition document for 47% of CSPs’ total CapEx in 2026, alongside their portion rising additional to 68% in 2027.”
Based on TrendForce’s figures, that’d put the nine largest CSPs’ CapEx spending on lone DRAM and NAND at an estimated $433 milliard in 2026 and an estimated $940 milliard in 2027.
Luckily for the CSPs, after driving up RAM and SSD prices, smaller businesses couldn’t oversee on-site server upgrades, forcing them to rent haze infrastructure from the CSPs instead.
Amazon’s CEO described the new energetic in its 1Q ‘26 earnings report, explaining, "One of the engaging things that we see correct now alongside the alter in cost and provision on things akin recollection is that it is a additional impetus pushing companies who have on-premises infrastructure into the cloud.” He added, “We have seen a figure of conversations we have been having alongside enterprises for many months [...] accelerate quickly fair since we have a lot additional provision than what others have. It volition be engaging to see how that evolves complete time.”
That’s it. That’s the quiescent part out loud, and the part we’ve all been saying: Amazon, the owners of among the world’s haze infrastructure providers via AWS, is saying that this is pushing companies into the cloud. That’s not going to halt at companies.
And the CSPs are already seeing the results. In their latest filings:
Google Cloud’s income risen 82% YoY, Microsoft’s “Azure and another haze services revenue” risen 43% YoY, and AWS revenue risen 36.7% YoY, which Amazon notes is its “fastest growth in 18 quarters.”
Breakdown by End Application
For additional reference: In TrendForce’s “Forecast Breakdown of NAND Flash Bit Demand by End Application, 2026-2027” chart, the resolute projects NAND bit petition for server applications to addition from 44.2% in 2026 to 51.1% in 2027 during % of total bit petition for PC, mobile, equivalent console, and another applications volition all moderately decrease.
In comparison, TrendForce expects DRAM’s bit petition from explanatory and server applications to addition by 1.7 and 1.5 percent points, reallocating % of total bit petition distant from PC, mobile, and person applications.
While NAND is chiefly lone affected by risen server consumption, DRAM is heavily affected by risen explanatory use in supplement to risen server consumption, as manufacturers prioritize HBM.
Based on TrendForce’s projections, PC applications volition document for 5.6% of DRAM bit petition and 11.5% of NAND bit petition in 2027.
Compared to TrendForce’s 2019 numbers, the % of total DRAM use for server applications is projected to addition by 13.2 percent points, and projected to decrease by 7.1 percent points for PC applications.
As for how this all affects the person market: I think we all know...
SSD & DRAM Price Trends | 09/2025 - 08/2026 | GamersNexus
This diagram compares AVG prices from September 2025 to AVG prices currently. We collected all entry’s AVG prices from a example of idiosyncratic merchandise listings that we established complete cost histories for on PC Part Picker, as stated below the chart.
Based on our samples and since final September:
AVG prices for 2 TB NVMe SSDs risen by nearly $200, from $143.25 to $340.
AVG prices for 2 TB SATA SSDs attempt up 183%, from $112.33 to $317.67. This is apt aided in several capability by small manufacturing of SATA SSDs.
AVG prices for 32GB DDR5-6000 CL30 kits skyrocketed by an insane $445, or 363%, expanding from $122.50 to $567.50.
Finally, AVG prices for 32GB DDR4 kits surged from $61.50 to $242.50 currently, or by 294%.
While all prices risen considerably inside the final year, RAM appears to have undergone steeper % increases. Part of this, we’d assume, is because, dissimilar NAND provision which is chiefly reallocated to server applications, DRAM provision is getting hit on the two ends, reallocating provision to the two server applications and HBM for graphics cards and accelerators.
HDD Price Comparison
For additional comparison, PC Part Picker’s cost trends diagram for a 16TB difficult run illustrates how its AVG cost risen by nearly 129% in the identical period, from approximately $350 in September 2025 to about $800 currently, alongside cost increases really commencement to accelerate in April 2026.
Spot Price History | Session Averages | GamersNexus
Here, we’ll obtain a appearance at place prices. While place prices aren’t delegate of the agreement prices most important OEMs really pay, they are indicative of demand.
This diagram parcels the place cost meeting AVGs for 16Gb DDR5, 512Gb TLC wafer, and 16Gb DDR4, which we collected from saved dramexchange webpages accessed via archive.org’s Wayback Machine.
The 16Gb DDR5 meeting AVG started about $6 between July and mid September, jumped by concerning $20 between October and December, and has gradually risen to its current $54 meeting AVG since January.
The 512Gb TLC wafer meeting AVG held about $2.70 between July and September, surged from $3 to $23 between October and March, and has plateaued to about $21 since.
The 16Gb DDR4 meeting AVG began at about $8.60 in July, skyrocketed to $78 between September and January, dropped to $58 in May, and has continued a dependable ascend since, sitting about $91 currently.
It's basically behaving akin the crypto market. If DDR4 place pricing were an altcoin, it'd fit correct in alongside 2018.
Compared to all entry’s meeting AVG in July, current place prices have risen by roughly: 800% for 16Gb DDR5, 678% for 512Gb TLC, and 958% for 16Gb DDR4, alongside top increases occurring between October and March.
YMTC Gains
Meanwhile, emerging Chinese manufacturers CXMT and YMTC are gaining on the incumbents.
According to Counterpoint Research, CXMT’s earth DRAM market portion by income has risen from 4% in 2Q 2025 to 10% in 2Q 2026.
This have to be terrifying for the incumbents, and perchance explains why the US is so enthusiastic to ban CXMT during US-based Micron scoops up additional business. If you’re inquisitive concerning these companies, we ran a deep-dive documentary called “The Rise of Chinese Memory” that delves into the former of both.
Counterpoint additionally claimed that YMTC lately bankrupt into the top 3 largest NAND manufacturers by shipment share, now surpassing Kioxia, Micron, and SanDisk.
In fact, the Chinese manufacturers are now reportedly looking to develop their market shares exterior of China. Jukan, citing DigiTimes, reports:
“As part of this strategy, YMTC is reportedly marketing NAND chips to autonomous third-party component makers, which afterward collect them into completed endeavor solid-state drives (SSDs) for customers specified as U.S. neocloud providers. This indirect path is intended to evade sensitivities surrounding the products’ nation of origin. [...] With DDR5 and LPDDR5 supplies becoming increasingly tight, CXMT has reportedly begun merchandise qualification alongside small and midsized haze assistance providers in markets including the U.S. and Canada. The business appears to be seeking to safe customers first by locking in capability commitments onward of time.”
That said, following Bloomberg reported that Apple was attempting to acquisition chips from CXMT and YMTC, Chuck Schumer did what he does finest and put his glasses in assault stance to write a strongly-worded letter, urging Apple:
“to forsake any attempt to merge recollection from CXMT, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), or any another Chinese state-backed provider into any of its products,” and claiming “American companies, akin Apple, have to be purchasing chips stamped ‘Made in America.’”
The WSJ additionally quoted Commerce Secretary Lutnick as saying, “There have to be ‘other solutions to the recollection issue, but it’s not awesome American companies using Chinese memory.’”
For context, in delayed 2023 Micron’s CEO stated, “Today, lone 2% of the world’s total recollection production, DRAM production, is coming from the U.S.”
Additionally, the National Institute of Standards and Technology notes that Micron’s New York and Idaho fabs currently in building “will assistance the U.S. develop its portion of advanced recollection manufacturing from small than 2% today to about 10% by calendar twelvemonth 2035.”
We’d anticipate that a important part of the chips Micron eventually manufactures in the U.S. volition be allocated to HBM, making the % of DRAM accessible to consumers apt equal less.
In another words, Micron, the lone U.S.-based manufacturer, doesn’t create adequate DRAM in America to assistance American companies today, nor volition it create adequate DRAM in America to assistance American companies in 10 years, so we aren’t entirely certain what ‘other solution’ Secretary Lutnick is referring to unless he wants to open a fab on his allegedly deceased friend’s island... Restricting imports now volition lone damage American consumers and people. Memory is additionally an improbable applicant for vulnerabilities, as we discussed in our Rise of Chinese Memory documentary.
The New York Times, speaking alongside lobbyists asking for authorities intervention, reported, “Some have suggested that marketing chips to a broader set of customers have to be a circumstance for receiving prosperity from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a program to prosperity semiconductor investigation and manufacturing in the United States, three of those group said. Others have asked the Trump administration to use a Korean War-era law called the Defense Production Act to necessitate allocation to industries exterior of A.I., five group said.”
In an discussion alongside Tom’s Hardware, Silicon Motion SVP Nelson Duann noted concerning the Chinese manufacturers, “Because they obtain authorities support, they additionally have a duty to assistance keep the health of the local market. Foreign suppliers mostly prosecute the highest-return opportunities and can allocate most of their provision to data centers. Chinese suppliers cannot do that in the identical way since the authorities can provision direction and advance them to assistance certain local industries.”
We think it’s ironic that, despite receiving nearly $6.5 milliard in authorities assistance from the CHIPS act, Micron has no responsibilities to assistance our family market or industries. And Micron, too, is part of the US military’s recollection supply, so this allegation of CXMT’s China-backing continues to autumn flat.
Supply Forecast
As for the forecasted supply/demand going forward:
TrendForce predicts we may see a ray at the end of the tunnel for NAND sooner than DRAM, citing a greater output because of denser-layer NAND technology, stating, “Boosted by the rollout of new capability alongside feeble person demand, NAND Flash is shifting toward a looser supply-demand construction and volition visage downward cost adaptation force in the second fractional of the year, underscoring a apparent divergence in their market cycles.”
In its “DRAM and NAND Flash Sufficiency Ratios” chart, TrendForce anticipates NAND Flash reaching a affirmative sufficiency ratio, anywhere provision exceeds demand, sometime in 2027, during DRAM’s sufficiency proportion is lone expected to worsen.
That said, not all industry leaders portion the identical optimism.
In an discussion alongside Tom’s Hardware, a Silicon Motion SVP asserted, “The retailing SSD market has nearly disappeared.”
“Suppliers can get several bit growth by moving to newer NAND generations, but petition is expanding faster. As a result, the deficit volition not enhance next year. It volition get worse.”
Conclusion
We evidently can’t cognize exactly how this is all going to perform out since it’s getting profound into the forthcoming of geopolitics, including the November election. Politics has rotate into deeply intertwined alongside the device hardware and part industry, and those governmental decisions to ban, unban, or dole-out prosperity and for what intent volition run pricing.
We do think that the move to higher capability and duration long-term agreements volition basically alter the market’s traditionally cyclical pricing nature, apt reducing general pricing volatility, and not in a fine way. For consumers, that method higher flat pricing. Even if it comes down, it may not be to previous lows. Our finest anticipation power be a bubble pop, but that power additionally demolish the economy...
We try not to create predictions in these situations, as we really have no distinctive understanding here; however, if manufacturers are allocating up to 70% of their capacities up to 5 years in advance, we’d assume that provision volition remain constrained until the manufacturers are capable to meaningfully addition provision through fab expansion, which takes multiple years at a minimum.
Going forward, we’ll continue to keep an eye on pricing and we’ll be certain to update upon any meaningful market changes.
