Jim Dandy 2026: What Renegade And Irad Ortiz Have To Do For Their Run

This good Michael Reaves shot, top, of Golden Tempo edging Renegade astatine the Churchill decorativeness statement is simply a expansive rendering of 2 airborne Thoroughbreds thundering down connected victory, aliases thing very adjacent to it. But it only hints astatine the ferocious mile-and-a-quarter gauntlet each equine had to tally to get to that exalted precipice successful America’s, and the racing world’s, astir celebrated race.

Within spittin’ region of the 5:44 station clip for the $500,000 Jim Dandy astatine Saratoga tomorrow, what follows is simply a study of the 2 biggest races successful Renegade’s life to date, and the anatomy of his decorativeness successful them.

The first and biggest title was the Derby, pictured top, and the 2nd was the Belmont, pictured below. It’s adjacent to opportunity that, arsenic a bright, good starring colt nationally and arsenic a dressed up Triple Crown veteran, Renegade’s runs successful those races person been bandied astir to a fare-thee-well. But it’s arsenic adjacent to observe that Renegade’s results wrong the 2 Triple Crown runnings person been misunderstood by a very awesome number of group successful handicapping the Jim Dandy and by extension, successful assessing contenders successful what upstate New Yorkers and galore others see a shadow, sort-of-widowmaker Triple Crown race, namely, the Travers, infamous for bringing moreover the godly Secretariat to a uncommon defeat.

What we’re aft present is the reply to a two-fold question: Why is Renegade the second-favorite successful the Jim Dandy greeting statement by specified a skinny margin, and the corollary, why does the handicapping mindset that Renegade whitethorn upwind up successful the money (but almost surely not arsenic the victor) exist? Some notables among the gods of picking, the NYRA’s hilariously, fearsomely crisp Andy Serling among them, look adjacent to tossing the inescapable Ortiz Jr. and his talented mount, not to mention the brainy Texan trainer Todd Pletcher, complete an – ahem – Ohio Derby winner. Rare and curious, that, no?

But earlier we dive into the minutia of those battles, here’s a refresher connected the Jim Dandy section and its greeting line.

(Post Position, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line Odds)

1. Chip Honcho, Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 3-1

2. Asked and Answered, Antonio Arriaga, Jaime Rodriguez, 30-1

3. Renegade, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-5

4. Silent Tactic, Mark Casse, Luis Saez, 6-1

5. Commandment, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-5

(Source: New York Racing Association, 7/30/2026)

A look backmost is required: Renegade sewage to Churchill by winning the Arkansas Derby, a big, celebrated prep successful which he easy hammered into spot the speedy Silent Tactic, whom he will meet again bristling beside him astatine station clip successful the Saratoga gross connected Saturday. But the Arkansas triumph perfectly pales beside the sheer madness and gargantuan size of the Churchill Downs extravaganza – its field, its audience, its gate, its paddock, its ambient decibel level, and not least, the magnitude of its title astatine its precise debut constituent successful the diversion lives of its three-year-old contenders.

All that spectacle is unmatched successful American and successful world Thoroughbred racing connected dirt, and to varying degrees each of it freaks retired each and each equine that runs successful it. The Derby’s mobility is rather often decided by whichever colt aliases filly has the racing attraction and the spot not to succumb to his aliases her ambient freak-out.

Because the Kentucky Derby fields are truthful immense – this year, astatine eighteen horses, it was double the nine-horse section of the different Triple Crown bookend, the Belmont – the Churchill commencement traditionally resembles much of a rugby scrum than immoderate different title among Thoroughbreds.

The logic is this: For a mile-and-a-quarter race, the “new” Churchill gross is positioned astatine the apical of the stretch, wherever the way broadens pinch a small kick-out bulge to accommodate the 20-stall monstrosity. From that break, location remains conscionable complete a quarter-mile to the first move – 480 yards and alteration – which intends that the athletes who person drawn wrong station positions person anyplace from a fewer to sixteen aliases seventeen – aliases moreover nineteen – rivals coming down difficult upon them to prevention crushed earlier they deed that first turn.

The rugby scrum isn’t relegated to the break. Bluntly put, if you participate an jock aliases a mates of them successful the Kentucky Derby, God thief you and him aliases her, because jostling, bumping and outright fouls are the position quo. Getting done sixteen to ninteteen horses to the decorativeness is simply a tight beingness conflict nary matter astatine which constituent of telephone the athletes are successful the race. It’s a uncommon Kentucky Derby erstwhile the stewards do not person to return 2nd looks.

Which is precisely the characteristic that makes the Derby specified a highly demanding, tactical race. Winning it is simply a ragingly swift chess crippled of uncovering the slot to creation distant from the competition. It’s astatine erstwhile a jockey’s race, and a monumental situation for these adolescents, moving the longest and surely the astir baffling, fierce span of their lives. The much lightly raced contenders don’t moreover yet cognize really to “listen” to their jocks’ tactical suggestions, which of people begs each sorts of disaster.

As we know, Renegade was the 2026 favorite, and he famously drew the astir dreaded station position successful the full Derby tumble , the No. 1 “hole,” smack connected the rail. At the break, during which he sewage slammed by a triumvirate of horses themselves moving to escaped being slammed by a neighbor, Renegade and Ortiz had the full section coming down connected them successful the tally to the turn.

Which brings america to the point: He virtually had to re-start his run, which is, astatine the tender property of three, beardown grounds of tactical prowess, and moreover stronger grounds – if immoderate were needed – that Hall of Fame jock Irad Ortiz is simply a tactical genius. That Renegade not only brought a immense run, wove done the peloton and came wrong a cervix of taking the triumph is thing short of an heroic deed. Said different way, he hit sixteen of his nationally-ranked peers, including his somewhat more-favored rival connected Saturday, Commandment.

Four weeks later, Renegade’s unsmooth Derby thrust continued, and tin moreover beryllium said to person been worse, successful the Belmont. The terse Equibase paragraph connected his adventurous Belmont tally sounds for illustration the movie book from One Battle After Another.

Here it is:

“RENEGADE bobbled astatine the break, raced conscionable disconnected the wrong done the first move earlier heading 3 paths disconnected the obstruction down the backstretch, continued 3 wide done the acold move coming nether urging pinch five-sixteenths to go, angled six wide into precocious stretch, dug successful rallying pinch the apical brace to the furlong grounds, past couldn’t support gait precocious and was shaken disconnected by those rivals while keeping connected to beryllium clear for the show honors.

To get astir postulation successful the backstretch, Ortiz took him 3 lanes wide, past had to spell six wide astatine the apical of the agelong – efficaciously having to inquire Renegade to commencement different tally earlier they could get astir about of the peloton. Renegade led Golden Tempo and Commandment for a fewer seconds successful the agelong arsenic they squeezed him toward the rail, and that caused his rally to falter ever truthful slightly, allowing the victor and the spot equine to put him successful show. But: He was pinch them until the very past strides.

The constituent astir some those large races is: traffic. Although the Belmont break was smooth, Renegade and Ortiz took to the backmost alongside Golden Tempo and Commandment and had much to do winding his measurement done the battalion than either of them. There won’t beryllium that benignant of postulation successful this five-horse field, and Renegade has beaten Commandment erstwhile it mattered most, and arguably, erstwhile his postulation problems were astatine their astir acute, astatine Churchill.

Essentially, that truth unsocial deepens the enigma of Renegade’s second-favorite position successful the greeting line. What were they reasoning up location successful the Adirondacks? What did Renegade do incorrect isolated from conflict the postulation that confronted him?

The measurement guardant for Ortiz and Renegade is precisely that: forward. They cannot spend a sloppy aliases moreover a moderately relaxed break, and they person to enactment higher up successful the operation truthful arsenic not to time off thing undone aliases un-doable successful the past 2 furlongs. It is simply a shorter title by an eighth, and that will adhd immoderate important separator to the (reputedly) zippier threat Chip Honcho. Commandment, besides a large closer, arguably spot disconnected much than he could chew successful the past 2 furlongs of the Belmont arsenic well, which is to say, the nominal favourite is different 1 who is going to person to hew to the full stay-forward-rather-than-settling-back mantra.

We shall spot what the way money will opine connected the constrictive favourite Commandment arsenic the timepiece ticks toward 5:44 p.m. Eastern successful Saratoga tomorrow, but his residency arsenic the favourite looks parlous astatine best. Chip Honcho seems improbable to beryllium enormously loved by the way money, but weirder things person happened. For a adjacent second-favorite astatine the moment, Renegade’s connections person nary prime but to observe their position arsenic a highly decorated, but oddly-unloved, outlier.

And that whitethorn beryllium the champion logic of each to put immoderate money connected his nose.