China Calls It Waste Paper. The Philippines' Win Still Sets The Rules

Sailors aboard the Philippine Navy frigate BRP Jose Rizal salute during a passing workout pinch the Royal Australian Navy destroyer HMS Brisbane astatine the culmination of a maritime cooperative activity betwixt the Philippines, Australia and Canadian navies adjacent Scarborough Shoal successful disputed waters of the South China Sea connected September 3, 2025. (Photo by Ted ALJIBE / AFP) (Photo by TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

China calls it a portion of discarded paper. But it is 1 of the astir important world ineligible decisions successful history. July 12, 2026 marks 10 years since the Philippines prevailed against China successful the South China Sea Arbitration. The landmark ruling held that China violated the Philippines’ authorities nether the United Nations Convention connected the Law of the Sea. China refused to participate successful the arbitration and has not afloat complied pinch the ruling, causing immoderate commentators to disregard the value of the case. However, the ruling has tremendous implications for location politics--and for immoderate early warfare betwixt the United States and China.

The Philippines revenge the lawsuit complete China’s repeated violations of its sovereign authorities wrong its 200-nautical mile exclusive economical zone. China claims sovereignty complete astir of the South China Sea based connected its alleged nine-dash line, a characteristic of Chinese Communist Party maps since the 1940s. China’s claims overlap pinch those of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In 2012, China occupied Scarborough Shoal, a accepted Filipino sportfishing crushed wrong the Philippines’ EEZ, endangering the lives of Philippine unit and fishermen successful the process. Simultaneously, China was causing tremendous biology harm by building artificial islands elsewhere successful the EEZs of the Philippines and different neighbors. China swiftly built runways, hangars, radomes, and different indicators that it was militarizing the islands.

Unable to antagonistic China militarily without U.S. support, the Philippines initiated arbitration nether Annex VII of UNCLOS successful 2013, pinch the Permanent Court of Arbitration acting arsenic registry. (A scholar chastised maine for not including the Annex number and specifics of tribunal constitution successful a erstwhile column, truthful I did it this time!) The Philippines’ action was a classical lawfare move: usage rule to execute a strategical aliases subject nonsubjective successful lieu of kinetic force.

China refused to participate. It alleged that the arbitration itself was forbidden because the Philippines had not negotiated sufficiently earlier filing. Understanding the value of the case, the arbitrators pieced together China’s position from its charismatic statements and authorities practice. China’s overseas ministry released a position insubstantial while the lawsuit was successful progress—which publication remarkably for illustration a ineligible brief—that the arbitrators considered arsenic well.

What The South China Sea Arbitration Actually Decided

The lawsuit was not straight astir sovereignty. The Tribunal did not person jurisdiction to find sovereignty complete the contested maritime features—the generic word covering the contested rocks, reefs, islands, and low-tide elevations successful the South China Sea. The lawsuit was astir violations of UNCLOS, which covers the authorities of states related to business, environment, earthy resources, and state of navigation. However, to determine whether China violated UNCLOS done its island-building run and vulnerable activity astatine Scarborough Shoal, the Tribunal needed to find the ineligible position of each feature. That determination would, successful turn, person implications for related authorities to sovereign territory and earthy resources. For example, a stone generates a 12-nautical mile territorial oversea but nary exclusive economical zone. Low-tide elevations and reefs make thing astatine all.

The Tribunal issued a sweeping triumph for the Philippines. It recovered that nary of the contested features were legally islands. The effect was to invalidate some China’s nine-dash statement and its artificial island-building campaign—a monolithic rustle to China’s nationalist pride. The Tribunal besides recovered that China had caused terrible biology harm and performed unsafe maneuvers that violated the authorities of Philippine unit and Filipino fishermen. China swiftly responded, calling the determination a portion of “waste paper” and launching a worldwide media run to denounce it.

Ten Years Of Chinese Defiance Of The South China Sea Arbitration

Ten years later, skeptics of the ruling’s value person plentifulness to constituent to. After all, China did not wantonness its artificial islands, and has accrued their subject and surveillance capacity. Two months earlier the decision, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was elected. Duterte famously distanced himself from the United States and cozied up to China (and is presently awaiting an International Criminal Court proceedings for crimes against humanity). China’s rule enforcement and subject vessels proceed to run dangerously successful the South China Sea, often utilizing h2o cannons and moreover severing the thumb of a Philippine sailor astatine a contested characteristic successful 2024. Manila, arsenic ASEAN chair, is still trying to discuss the aforesaid South China Sea Code of Conduct pinch China that ASEAN has been pursuing since 2002, pinch small progress. One of the sticking points? China refuses the Code to beryllium legally binding.

China besides still maintains power complete Scarborough Shoal, and is utilizing lawfare to bolster its claim. After the decision, China allowed Filipino fishermen backmost astatine Scarborough Shoal for respective years. In 2019, Chinese president Xi Jinping offered then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte a monolithic lipid and state woody successful speech for abandoning the arbitration award. When Duterte refused, China began blocking Filipino fishermen from the shoal again. In 2025, China doubled down connected its claims to the Shoal. It established a “nature reserve” there, creating a home ineligible pretext to apprehension immoderate Filipinos sportfishing astatine the shoal. It besides flipped the logic of the ruling connected its head, casting itself arsenic the “lawful” protector of the environment.

The South China Sea Arbitration Set The Rules of the Game

Despite China’s imperfect compliance, the determination has group the rules of the crippled successful the South China Sea. It now sets the position for diplomacy and speech successful the region. On the tenth day of the ruling, the United States, the Philippines, and 12 different states reaffirmed their committedness to the determination and denounced China’s unlawful behavior. At slightest 27 states person called for the ruling to beryllium respected, and 17 much person issued mostly affirmative statements astir it. Only 8 states person publically rejected the ruling. Other South China Sea claimant states usage the ruling to warrant their ain actions—and are sharply denounced by China each time. Malaysia and Indonesia person referenced the determination successful UN communications. When Vietnam and Indonesia, and Indonesia and Malaysia, settled years-long maritime bound disputes according to UNCLOS, China sent ships to enforce its ain disputed claims pinch those states.

Ten years later, China is still moving frightened of the decision. China has not created immoderate caller islands successful the Spratlys since the award. It has ne'er said why. China’s media denunciation of the grant continues. In 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard launched an assertive transparency strategy to expose China’s illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive behaviour successful the South China Sea. The Philippines began to release video of China violating the arbitration ruling, and calling retired the illegality of China’s actions connected societal media. Philippine officials in installments the transparency strategy pinch garnering world support for the Philippines and strengthening its subject alliances. The strategy has besides angered China, which has demanded that Manila rein successful the Coast Guard spokesperson who leads it.

The Philippines/China arbitration determination has changed the behaviour of states crossed the globe. The ruling converted China’s South China Sea claims from “contested” to “unlawful” successful the eyes of the world. The determination is now the shared ineligible vocabulary of states, and states must support aliases protestation it. Every clip a authorities invokes aliases relies upon the ruling, its effect and value compounds—making it harder for China to ignore. And each clip China denounces the decision, it pays a costs successful legitimacy. Whether China yet complies pinch the determination whitethorn find whether warfare successful the Pacific will begin. Meanwhile, the Philippines keeps showing the world really a wished authorities tin conflict and triumph connected the ineligible battlefield.