BMW Championship Picks: Scheffler Leads Star-Studded Field At Bellerive

OWINGS MILLS, MARYLAND - AUGUST 17: Scottie Scheffler of the United States poses pinch the Western Golf Association (WGA) Open J.K. Wadley Championship Cup trophy and the tourney trophy aft the last information of the BMW Championship 2025 astatine Caves Valley Golf Club connected August 17, 2025 successful Owings Mills, Maryland. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

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The erstwhile Western Open tees disconnected Thursday astatine Bellerive Country Club extracurricular of St. Louis, MO, pinch Scottie Scheffler arsenic the dense favorite.

The now-BMW Championship is the 2nd tourney successful the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, sandwiched betwixt the St. Jude Championship and the Tour Championship astatine East Lake Golf Club.

Unlike the different 2 tournaments, the BMW Championship is the only PGA Tour arena that changes venues twelvemonth to year, and this year’s big is simply a erstwhile awesome title venue. Bellerive hosted Brooks Koepka’s first PGA Championship triumph successful 2018, wherever he went connected to triumph by 2 strokes complete a charging Tiger Woods.

“I deliberation my attraction (in the majors), I don't cognize what it is, but I request to return it complete into regular circuit events too,” said Koepka successful Golf Digest. “For immoderate reason, the fields conscionable get my attention, it's truthful important. When you're retired present grinding away, firing astatine immoderate flags, firing astatine the mediate of the green, you conscionable sewage to beryllium very patient, and I ever do a beautiful bully occupation of that successful the majors.”

Neither Koepka nor Woods are successful the section this week. In fact, astir of the 2018 leaderboard is absent from the field. Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott and Justin Thomas each placed successful the apical six successful 2018, but now are coming successful pinch their games successful awesome form.

One subordinate who is successful the section is Scottie Scheffler.

“Busy three-week stretch,” he said successful Yardbarker. “I'm excited. I person 3 tournaments, 3 bully starts to benignant of extremity the year. Definitely excited to get this week going. I had a mates of bully weeks of remainder astatine home, and I'm looking guardant to getting this week started.”

Scheffler started the “excitement” pinch a decisive eight-shot triumph astatine the St. Jude, starring the section successful strokes gained putting and ranking highly successful driving and strokes gained tee-to-green. Data Golf presently gives Scheffler an 18.1% chance of winning this week.

Looking astatine course-fit data, however, Rory McIlroy measures the highest. Attributed to his season-long driving region and accuracy, McIlroy has the statistical advantage, contempt losing strokes astir the green. McIlroy admittedly is successful bad shape going into the playoffs.

Second to Scheffler successful Data Golf’s rankings is Ludvig Åberg, pinch Xander Schauffele third.

Schauffele tied for 25th successful 2018 astatine Bellerive and comes into the tourney successful bully shape and pinch a spot connected his shoulder. Schauffele lacks a triumph this year. Course knowledge and erstwhile precocious finishes could make him a bully prime to win.

Åberg placed successful the apical 10 successful the past 2 events and is classed sixth successful strokes gained this year. Holding him backmost is his putting, wherever he ranks 60th connected Tour. Putting played a much captious domiciled successful scoring than astatine the mean PGA Tour venue, which whitethorn bespeak it's smart to slice Åberg.

A agelong changeable successful position of likelihood but fitting the long-hitter domiciled is Michael Brennan. Brennan sewage complete the decorativeness statement astatine the Wyndham Championship and was concisely successful the operation astatine the 3M Open. His worst class is astir the green, a class that Bellerive does not prioritize. He ranks down Åberg successful putting, truthful slice him too.

Despite the people seeming to use driving region and players pinch beardown erstwhile performances, it seems apt that the 2026 BMW Championship will beryllium Scheffler’s.