AI's real threat to the job market isn't job loss, it's lower paychecks, new research says

AI isn't coming for your job — it's coming for your paycheck.

That's the conclusion of a caller achromatic insubstantial from Apollo Global Management, which measured the observed impacts of AI take connected costs and employment crossed various jobs successful the US.

The paper, which tracked costs and employment information for 321 occupations, recovered that jobs pinch the highest vulnerability to AI saw an mean 6.7% diminution successful existent costs maturation aft 2023, astir the clip ChatGPT first went viral.

Yet, AI's effects connected wide employment were not "detectable," Sania Edlich, an analyst, and Torsten Sløk, the main economist astatine Apollo, wrote successful a report. Put differently, the takeaway is that AI won't bargain your occupation but it mightiness costs you a raise.

AI trim astir into the costs maturation of the lowest earners, the insubstantial added. Service workers saw an mean 24.3% diminution successful net maturation since 2023, while workers successful the bottommost 25% of earners saw wages diminution by 10.7% complete that period. There was nary "significant effect" observed among the highest-paid workers, the insubstantial said.

The insubstantial said it examined occupational and costs information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and acknowledged respective "challenges" successful analyzing that information complete time, specified arsenic changes successful really different jobs and industries whitethorn beryllium classified, and really information is collected. It utilized Anthropic's Economic Index, which gauges which jobs are the astir exposed to AI, given the percent of related tasks that person been observed to beryllium performed utilizing Anthropic's AI tools.

Here are immoderate of the occupations pinch the highest vulnerability to AI that person already seen ample changes to existent wages, per Apollo's comparison of BLS information from 2022 to 2024:

Some roles saw larger costs declines, which appeared to beryllium triggered by broader manufacture factors. Broadcaster announcers and power DJs, who had a comparatively debased vulnerability to AI per Anthropic's Index, saw existent wages crater by 52% complete the two-year period.

Additionally, immoderate occupations saw a ample summation successful existent wages, contempt mean vulnerability to AI. For instance, individual finance advisors, whose roles person much than a 3rd of tasks that are exposed to AI, saw wages turn 8.4%. Administrative rule judges, adjudicators, and proceeding officers, whose roles person 30% of tasks exposed to AI, saw wages surge 17.5% complete the aforesaid timeframe.

Around 5.8 cardinal workers person roles that are highly exposed to AI, the insubstantial estimated.

"As AI take deepens crossed firm America, this fig is apt to turn substantially, pinch important implications for income inequality and labour marketplace argumentation successful the years ahead," Edlich and Slok said.

The thought that AI will destruct jobs has faced much pushback this year, but the grounds is increasing that wide usage of the exertion could trim into immoderate workers' income, peculiarly arsenic the labour marketplace evolves to prioritize different skills.

Ioana Marinescu, a UPenn economist, antecedently told Business Insider that wages could statesman to return a hit erstwhile roles spot astir 37% of intelligence tasks being automated.

Historically, workers who person been displaced from "technology-disrupted occupations" took an mean existent salary trim of astir 3% compared to different workers upon uncovering caller employment, and saw existent net turn an mean of 10 percent points little complete the adjacent decade, 1 Goldman Sachs study found.