A new report explores the economic impact of generative AI

Editor’s note: Today, we released a study from inaugural Technology & Society Visiting Fellow1 Andrew McAfee connected nan imaginable economical impacts of generative AI. This study is nan merchandise of McAfee’s original investigation connected AI and nan economy, moving intimately pinch experts crossed Google to attraction connected really nan caller surge successful generative AI whitethorn effect productivity, labour markets, and nan skills workers request to win successful an AI-powered economy.

Read connected for Andrew McAfee’s overview aliases download the full report.

Generative AI is 1 of nan uncommon technologies powerful capable to accelerate wide economical maturation — what economists telephone a “general-purpose technology.” These innovations person nan imaginable to positively toggle shape economies and societies.

By 1 estimate, adjacent to 80% of nan jobs successful nan U.S. system could spot astatine slightest 10% of their tasks done doubly arsenic quickly (with nary nonaccomplishment successful quality) via nan usage of generative AI.

Previous general-purpose technologies for illustration nan steam motor and electrification person brought their changes complete decades. However, we expect that generative AI’s effects will beryllium felt much quickly owed to its expertise to diffuse quickly via nan net and its easiness of usage owing to its earthy connection interface.

This exertion is already delivering ample productivity gains, which will summation and dispersed arsenic group and organizations travel up pinch complementary innovations that leverage generative AI’s capabilities. As a result, wide productivity will improve, resulting successful an acceleration of economical growth.

In summation to faster growth, generative AI will bring different changes. It will trim request for immoderate skills, summation request for others, and create request for wholly caller ones.

Fears of large-scale technological unemployment are astir apt overblown. The history of general-purpose technologies shows that nan maturation they bring is accompanied by beardown request for labor.

However, this accrued request is often successful caller occupations. For example, much than 85% of full U.S. employment maturation since 1940 has travel successful wholly caller occupations.

The accelerated changes brought by nan dispersed of generative AI will require punctual and effective reskilling efforts. These efforts will beryllium capable to tie connected generative AI itself, a instrumentality pinch nan unsocial expertise to thief group study really to usage it better. And because generative AI accumulates knowledge and makes it disposable connected demand, it’s peculiarly effective astatine improving nan capacity of entry-level employees, helping pinch costs inequality.

Previous general-purpose technologies person resulted successful changes to nan companies and countries starring nan measurement successful different industries. We judge that generative AI will beryllium likewise powerful.